On Saturday evening to Sunday morning, the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting is once again staged in the investment city of Omaha, usa. Tens of thousands of investors will gather in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, the hometown of the 'stock god' Buffett, to listen to Buffett's market views, investment strategies, and even life philosophy.
With Buffett's good friend Munger passing away at the end of last year, this year's shareholder meeting only has Chairman Buffett and two deputies - the designated successor appointed by the 'stock god' responsible for the company's non-insurance business, Greg Abel, and Ajit Jain, in charge of the insurance business, taking the stage to answer questions.
As a brief summary of today's shareholders' meeting, Buffett gave candid answers to the excessively high levels of cash in the investment market, the issue of reducing holdings in Apple, and offered insights on the possibility of investing in overseas markets such as Japan, Canada, and India. Additionally, despite repeatedly emphasizing his lack of understanding in technology, the stock god still expressed his views on emerging areas such as electric vehicles, cecep solar energy, and AI.
It is worth mentioning that although Munger is no longer around, Buffett mentioned his old friend several times throughout the event, even habitually turning to Abel and asking, 'How would Munger see this?' Remarkably, when discussing the issue of successors, Buffett jokingly referenced his age at a high frequency and even wished himself 'a next year as well' at the end of the meeting.
Below is a full text and image review of the entire event:
At 21:45 on Saturday, Beijing time 【Live video playback of the shareholders' meeting: Remembering Charlie Munger】
This year, the video tribute before the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting began was dedicated to Berkshire's Vice Chairman and Buffett's old friend, Charlie Munger.
In November last year, Charlie Munger passed away at the age of 99, just 33 days shy of his 100th birthday.
The shareholders' meeting was packed, with shareholders standing up and applauding to pay tribute to Munger.
After the tribute video to Munger finished, 0.03 million shareholders stood up and applauded to pay tribute.
22:15 The shareholders' meeting officially begins.
Buffett took the stage, marking the official start of the shareholders' meeting. In front of him, as usual, were his favorite See's Candies.
22:20 Buffett: Charlie Munger's book is the only book sold at this year's shareholders' meeting.
Buffett stated that to commemorate the late Munger, Charlie Munger's "Poor Charlie's Almanack" will be the only book sold at this year's shareholders' meeting. In previous years' shareholders' meetings, there were usually about 25 books for sale.
22:28 Buffett: Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 insurance business performance was outstanding, but this will not be the case for the remaining year.
Berkshire's first quarter operating profit of 11.22 billion USD mainly came from the insurance business. The company's insurance business operating profit in the first quarter reached as high as 5.2 billion USD.
When discussing the company's first-quarter performance, Buffett stated that Ajit Jain, who is in charge of Berkshire's insurance business, "wants me to point out to everyone that you can't just multiply the first-quarter insurance profits by 4. That's not how it works in the insurance industry."
Buffett stated that the company's insurance risks are distributed across different regions and types of disasters, with a major storm on the U.S. East Coast currently being the biggest risk the company faces. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June to November.
22:30 Buffett: Berkshire's cash reserves will reach $200 billion.
Buffett talked about Berkshire's huge cash reserves: At the end of Q1, our total cash and Treasury securities amounted to $182 billion. I believe that by the end of this quarter, our cash and Treasury securities will reach $200 billion, which is a reasonable assumption. We want to spend this money very much, but we won't spend it unless we think the risk is low and can bring us a lot of money.
22:37 Buffett on reducing Apple's holdings: Apple will still be our long-term investment.
Buffett said: We will continue to hold stocks of Apple, Coca-Cola, and American Express for the long term, and this strategy has been very successful for us in the past.
22:45 Buffett answers the first question: Will you continue to invest in China?
The first question in the shareholder meeting Q&A session was raised by a shareholder from Hong Kong, China: "Mr. Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway has invested in BYD before. Will you continue to invest in other Chinese companies in the future?"
Buffett responded: "Our main investment focus will be in the USA, which we firmly believe in. Look at the companies we invest in such as Coca-Cola or American Express, they are global expansion businesses. Companies like American Express or Coca-Cola with global operations are hard to find around the world, this is a global consensus. And I think the investment in BYD is similar to the investments we made in Japan five years ago: we quickly invested in five trading companies in Japan, you rarely see us making such investments overseas in the USA, even though we are participating in the world economy through these companies. I understand the rules, weaknesses, and strengths of the USA.... I don't have this feeling elsewhere in the world."
22:50 Buffett instinctively refers to the people around him as Charlie Munger.
After answering the question, Buffett, considering having Abel reply to a question, habitually called Abel "Charlie".
23:10 Buffett on ai: "I think the invention of ai is similar to nuclear weapons."
When asked about his views on ai by a questioner in Zone 4, Buffett jokingly responded: "I regret letting the friend from zone 4 ask, I should have let the shareholder from Zone 2 ask instead."
He continued: "I know nothing about ai, but that doesn't mean this technology isn't important. When we invented nuclear weapons, we already "let the genie out of the bottle," and the genie can't be put back, which is terrible. And I think ai is a similar situation. I just hope this genie can do some good now."
23:13 Buffett on DeepFake: ai may be used for investment fraud.
Buffett said: "I had a somewhat nervous experience, not long ago, I saw an image on the screen: it was me, my voice, my daughter couldn't even notice any difference, but the message it conveyed was definitely not from me. If I were interested in investment fraud, it would be one of the fastest-growing industries ever, as it is being used in a new way. Of course, ai could also bring good things."
Warren Buffett on climate change risk: Without risk, there would be no insurance.
Buffett stated that the company deals with (climate risks) on an annual basis; we will consider these factors when underwriting; we don't need to tell you what will happen in five or ten years. We have received many letters from people who are very confident in their intelligence, but they actually don't understand the insurance business. In my opinion, their views on climate change are not wrong, but if there's no risk, there's no insurance business. What we do is assessment work, once a year. There are some exceptions where your decisions need to have an impact for a long time in the future, we will try to avoid those situations.
23:30 Jan: Compared with peers in the insurance industry, Geico is still catching up in data analysis.
Ajit Jain, Vice Chairman responsible for insurance business at Berkshire Hathaway, mentioned that the well-known insurance company Geico under Berkshire is behind its peers in data analysis.
Jain said: "As Warren has pointed out in the past, one of Geico's shortcomings is that it hasn't done well in matching rates with risks, segmenting and pricing products based on risk characteristics. Geico has always been poor at risk management. Unfortunately, technology is a bottleneck."
But he added: "However, we are making progress. Yes, I admit we are still lagging behind, we are taking steps to narrow the gap, and of course, by the end of 2025, we should catch up with the best peers in terms of data analysis."
23:35 Buffett discusses the issue of Ajit Jain's successor.
When asked 'how difficult is it to find a successor to Ajit Jain,' Buffett said the company cannot find another Ajit Jain, but we have an operational system that he created. At least part of it, is almost impossible for competitors to imitate. (Note: Ajit Jain is a 72-year-old Vice Chairman at Berkshire Hathaway overseeing the insurance business.)
Ajit Jain also responded that no one is indispensable, among today's audience is Tim Cook, who has already proven this and set an example for many people. The board of directors at Berkshire pays close attention to the issue of succession, every year they let me sit in front of them and answer questions, sharing my thoughts with them, such as what would happen operationally if I were hit by a truck. I will introduce to them a shortlist of candidates that I believe could replace me. In addition, I will go further and determine a specific person to whom I would hand over the keys if something were to happen to me.
23:45 Warren Buffett answers the question: If you could spend another day with Munger, what would you do?
Buffett: Interesting question. Charlie loves to learn, as mentioned in the previous video, he is interested in many things, broader than my interests. Charlie and I have done many things together in the past: playing tennis, playing golf, and the time we spend together is more enjoyable than when we are alone.
Charlie has shared many great ideas with me, many of which are still making money for Berkshire. Except for when he was in the military, Charlie has never considered whether he eats healthily, but he still lived to be 99.9 years old.
If Charlie could spend a day with me, I don't think there would be any difference from any of the days we have spent together in the past.
23:52 Warren Buffett hints at evaluating a Canadian investment.
In response to Canadian investors' questions, Buffett revealed that Berkshire is evaluating a potential investment opportunity, located 'north of the (USA) border.' Buffett stated: We are very comfortable with investing in Canada, in fact, we are currently examining an investment. (Note: Berkshire has been secretly investing in a financial sector for the past three quarters, which is also one of the focus of this year's meeting.)
23:58 Abel responds to 'Why invest in fossil energy?'
When asked why Berkshire continues to invest in fossil energy in a place like Las Vegas with great solar energy, Berkshire's vice chairman Abel said: "Considering the ongoing transition in the energy sector, we are moving from carbon resources to renewable resources, but this transformation will not happen overnight, it will take many years. And when we use renewable resources like cecep solar energy or wind energy, they are intermittent. We are indeed trying to combine them with batteries, but currently cannot fully transition from carbon resources."
Buffett endorsed it, saying, "My friend Bill Gates is working hard to shorten the time it takes to work on batteries, but this is not something that can be done overnight. I can understand why people would want it to happen overnight, but it will require a lot of funding, good ideas, and smart people like Bill. Many are working on this issue, we have enough funds to implement it, but some things do take time. Buffett gave an example, you can't have nine women give birth to a child in one month, there are some natural rules you have to follow."
Sunday 00:05 Beijing time [Buffett's answer to the question: What's the one sentence you most want to share with us?]
Buffett: What I want to say is, you should consider yourself lucky to live in the USA, because you can find opportunities here that many other countries in the world cannot offer.
I think the opportunities in the USA are endless... You can't imagine how much progress we have made in the past two hundred years: first the industrial revolution, then advances in science, education, and more. I think many people here should consider themselves lucky to be born in the USA, I think you should also find activities you love to engage in, and should find like-minded people, that's how Charlie and I found each other.
00:18 [Buffett's answer to the question: Is it possible to invest in India?]
Buffett: Indeed, we are keeping an eye on India, and I believe there are plenty of opportunities in India. But my question is, do we have an advantage in our views on India? Is our investment really what India wants us to be involved in?
Maybe there are some opportunities in India that we haven't noticed yet. In the future, we might find some opportunities, but right now our question is, can Berkshire pursue these opportunities?
Our investment in Japan is doing very well, and there may also be similar opportunities in India. However, there may be some differences between Japan and India, especially in terms of cultural differences, and I currently do not have a good answer to this.
Buffett said that when it comes to investing in India, we will see how the next management team at Berkshire plays this game. Fortunately, you don't have to wait too long. Buffett emphasized feeling good himself, but he also has some knowledge of his old age.
00:30 【Buffett talks about the huge cash reserves: There are currently no attractive investment targets】
A shareholder asked: Berkshire already has over $180 billion in cash reserves, what are you waiting for? Why not use them for investments?
Buffett: I think that those of us on stage now do not have a great idea of how to use this money. Many people are swinging their baseball bats whenever, while we only swing the bat at the right time. We also don't always aim for returns surpassing one hundred billion, now a return of a million might be good enough because it's difficult to find such good investment opportunities. There are currently no attractive investment targets for us to invest in, but that might change later, so let's wait and see.
00:55 【Buffett on the impact of autonomous driving technology on insurance】
Buffett: Autonomous driving may reduce the occurrence of accidents or reduce traffic costs, but it is still in a difficult initial stage. Over the past few years, people have been discussing this issue. When Uber was just starting out, people were also discussing whether this business model was feasible. But now it has been proven feasible. If autonomous driving technology can reduce the accident rate by 50%, that would be great.
00:56 【Buffett answers: How do you view zero-emission vehicles? Is Berkshire still interested in new energy vehicles like BYD?】
Buffett: I don't think we will focus too much on zero-emission cars, because we don't believe this track can determine the ultimate winner now.
Perhaps the government is also not doing enough in the field of environmental protection, and the situation of environmental climate change is very bad. We do need to change our way of life now, but there are different opinions on whether this issue can be implemented. Since I was born in the 1930s, environmental protection has always been an issue. The global population has increased from 3 billion to 8 billion over the past few decades, but we still haven't solved this problem.
1:13 [Half-time break]
Buffett announced the half-time break of the shareholders' meeting, and the second half will start at 2:00 Beijing time.
A short film is being played at the shareholders' meeting. In the film, the chairman of the Board of Directors of the Einstein Medical College announced that student tuition will be exempted from August of this year. This decision is all thanks to a whopping $1 billion donation, which comes from David Gottesman, an early investor in Berkshire Hathaway and a friend of Buffett for sixty years.
Buffett said: This is why Charlie and I are passionate about managing Berkshire.
2:08 [Berkshire Shareholders Meeting Second Half Begins]
At the Q&A session in the second half, in front of Buffett, in addition to See's Candies, there is also a can of coca-cola.
2:20【Who will take over the investment decision of Berkshire Hathaway? Buffett responds】
When asked about the allocation of responsibilities between Abel and the two investment deputies, Todd and Ted, after Abel takes over Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett stated that this decision will be made by Berkshire's board of directors, and after he is gone, they may try to "come back and see if they have different approaches."
However, Buffett emphasized that if he were on the board at that time, he might leave the responsibility of capital allocation to Abel based on his understanding of Abel's business acumen. Buffett said that if you understand the business, you understand stocks; if you truly know how a business operates, you are an investment manager. Buffett stated that the responsibilities he currently bears should be fully carried by the next CEO, which is Abel.
2:45【Buffett: We have missed out on many investment opportunities but rarely feel regretful】
Buffett said that he and Munger have definitely missed out on many investment opportunities over the years, but regret only a few.
"We've missed out on a lot of things, what we really regret is missing out on some very important things, we never anguish over things we don't understand," Buffett said, "Why should we be able to predict the future of every business, just like we can predict the yield of wheat?"
2:50 【What are the times and reasons for selling stocks? Buffett responds】
Regarding the factors in determining when to sell stocks, Buffett stated that reducing positions often has many reasons, one of which is when you need cash. This situation is rare for Berkshire Hathaway, but from the time he started investing at the age of 20, this situation occurred with every decision.
At 3:00, Buffett: I take full responsibility for the investment failure in Paramount.
Buffett stated that Berkshire's decision to invest in Paramount was made 100% by him, with no involvement from the two investment managers. The company has sold all its holdings and incurred a significant loss.
At 3:23, What's the secret to maintaining a sharp mind? Buffett: Luck.
When asked by a shareholder from Hainan, China about the secret to maintaining a sharp mind, extraordinary judgment, and good physical condition, Buffett said it could only be attributed to luck. If he could go back to his high school days and ask how many people in the class would live to 90 and how many boys would live to 93, he wouldn't bet on himself.
Buffett stated that luck is very important. Some people may say, 'I achieved all of this on my own.' But he feels that such people are really not thinking clearly.
However, Buffett also emphasized that one should make full use of the opportunities in life.
At 3:50, Buffett on the risk of artificial intelligence: It's too early to draw conclusions now.
When asked about the threats that artificial intelligence may bring, Buffett said: Your question is very good, but my biggest problem is that I do not fully understand artificial intelligence. I believe that any labor-intensive industry could be threatened by AI.
巴菲特表示:现在很多人都认为,对于人工智能有很多深层的内容值得讨论,我刚也说过,它是一个已经从瓶子里出来的精灵。AI能创造大量的闲暇时间,但这个世界如何使用这么多的闲暇时间会是一个问题。如果这项技术用在对社会有益的地方,会带来巨大的好处,但不知道如何确保这一点。
阿贝尔:我觉得人工智能在提高效率、节省时间方面能够起作用,但在一些劳动密集行业,人工智能可能在让流程更安全等方面的效果可能仍然值得观察。
巴菲特:是的,现在就讨论人工智能的影响可能还言之过早。当然,AI技术是不可思议的,但大家对其的预测可能不都会是正确的。我们现在仍不知道,人工智能究竟会不会是“下一个我们开发出来的核弹”。
3:55 【巴菲特回应“如何看到美国国债暴增”】
当被问及“比起2008-2009年,美国国债市场的规模翻了6倍,市场将在何时无法吸纳那么多美国国债?”时,巴菲特表示这个问题他也不知道,但最好的猜测是美债将会在未来很长一段时间内依然被市场接纳,因为眼下并没有很好的替代标的。
04:05 巴菲特举起藏在桌上的彩蛋——一块写着“闭嘴”的牌子,作为给他自己的忠告,也给整场股东会画上问号。巴菲特对着全场股东们表示,希望你们明年也能来开股东大会,也祝愿他自己“也能来”。
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