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益丰药房(603939):业绩稳健增长 门店数量快速扩张

Yifeng Pharmacy (603939): Steady growth in performance, rapid expansion of the number of stores

國聯證券 ·  May 4

Incidents:

The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 22.588 billion yuan, up 13.59% year on year; net profit to mother of 1,412 billion yuan, up 11.90% year on year; net profit after deducting net profit of 1,362 billion yuan, up 10.92% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, revenue was 5.971 billion yuan, up 13.39% year on year; net profit to mother was 407 million yuan, up 20.89% year on year; net profit after deduction was 399 million yuan, up 24.26% year on year.

The number of stores is expanding rapidly

In 2023, the company achieved retail revenue of 20.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.00%; wholesale business revenue of 1,892 billion yuan, an increase of 39.23% over the previous year. The company adheres to the development strategy of “regional focus, steady expansion” and is deeply involved in the Central and South China, East China and North China markets through the “new opening+merger and acquisition+franchise” expansion model. By the end of 2023, the total number of company stores reached 13,250 (including 2,986 franchisees), an increase of 2,982 over the previous year. In 2023, the company opened 3,196 new stores, including 1,613 self-built stores, 559 mergers and acquisitions, 1,024 franchise stores, relocated 61 stores, and closed 153 stores.

The new retail business is developing rapidly

The company continues to promote the construction of a new ecological pharmaceutical retail system based on membership, big data, internet medical care, health management, etc. By the end of 2023, the company's cumulative number of registered members reached 87.1 million, up 23.21% year on year. Member sales accounted for 77.4%, up 2.89% year on year, and over 16.87 million followers on the company's official account. In 2023, the company's B2C and O2O businesses achieved revenue of 1,818 billion yuan, of which O2O achieved sales revenue of 1,399 million yuan and B2C sales revenue of 419 million yuan. By the end of 2023, the company's O2O had launched more than 9,000 direct-run stores and more than 600 24-hour delivery stores, covering all major offline cities of the company.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

Considering the uncertainty of industry development during the policy transition period, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 275/337/41.3 billion yuan, corresponding growth rates of 21.93%/22.40%/22.49%; net profit to mother of 17.60/21.79/2,692 billion yuan, corresponding growth rates of 24.64%/23.81%/23.54%, respectively; EPS of 1.74/2.16/2.66 yuan, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 24.00%. The company is a leading domestic pharmacy enterprise with outstanding refined management capabilities. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company was given 32 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 55.73 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: prescription outflow falls short of expectations; declining profitability; risk of policy changes; increased market competition; store expansion falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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