Core views:
Operating and financial data: The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 23, the company achieved revenue of 57.684 billion yuan, +7.74% year over year; realized net profit of 3,723 billion yuan, -5.03% year over year; realized net profit without return to mother of 3.65 billion yuan, -4.63% year over year. The company completed a business volume of 21.24 billion tickets in 23 years, 21.31% year on year, and single ticket revenue was 2.41 yuan, -6.88% year over year. Among them, in 23Q4, the company achieved net profit of 1,064 billion yuan, -7.36% year-on-year.
In 24Q1, the company achieved revenue of 15.427 billion yuan, +19.46% year over year; realized net profit of 943 million yuan, +4.14% year over year; realized net profit without deduction of 903 million yuan, +3.23% year over year.
The company completed business volume of 5.568 billion tickets in 24Q1, +24.93% year-on-year, and single ticket revenue was 2.43 yuan, -4.90% year-on-year.
Market share has increased steadily, and cost control has been continuously optimized. In 23, the company completed a business volume of 21.24 billion units, +21% over the same period, exceeding the industry's business volume growth rate of 2 pcts. The annual market share reached 16.05%, an increase of 0.25 pcts over the previous year, and the market share increased steadily. The company's single ticket revenue in '23 was 2.41 yuan, down 0.18 yuan from '22, but the company still maintained excellent cost control. In '23, the company's single ticket transportation cost was 0.46 yuan, down 9.67% year on year, and the operating cost of the single ticket center was 0.29 yuan, down 5.37% year on year. In the end, in '23, the company achieved net profit of 3,723 billion yuan, -5.03% year-on-year, and net profit of 0.18 yuan per ticket, a year-on-year decrease of 0.04 yuan. The profit level declined slightly, mainly due to shrinking profits in the freight forwarding business and losses in the aviation business.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. As the top two in the industry's market share, Yuantong's profit level has steadily increased, leading its peers in single ticket profit. We expect EPS to be 1.25, 1.44, and 1.64 yuan/share in 24-26, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, we will give the company a 24-year 15 PE valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of 18.75 yuan/share, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning. Industry demand growth fell short of expectations, industry price competition worsened again, franchise network operations were unstable, policy impact was uncertain, and macroeconomic environment was under pressure.