净利率水平稳定，经营活动现金流受地产业务影响承压：（1）24Q1 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为0.3%/1.5%/1.2%/0.8%，同比分别基本持平/-0.1pct/-0.1pct/+0.3pct，财务费用率提升主要是受到汇兑损失增加的影响；24Q1 公司资产/信用减值损失分别为-567/3172 万元，同比分别少计提1.5/1.1 亿元，投资净收益为6.8 亿元，同比-4.0 亿元；综合影响下公司24Q1 归母净利率为2.7%，同比-0.1pct；（2）24Q1 公司经营活动现金流净额为-966.0 亿元，同比多流出311.7 亿元，主要是受到地产业务销售回款减少、购置土地增加双重因素影响，收现比/付现比分别为100.7%/118.7%。同比分别-1.5/+3.8pct；截至24Q1 末公司带息债务余额为8856 亿元，环比23Q4 末+783 亿元，资产负债率为74.8%，环比23Q4 末略下滑0.1pct。Key points of investment
Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report, achieving operating income of 549.32 billion yuan, +4.7% year-on-year, net profit to mother of 14.92 billion yuan, +1.2% year-on-year, and net profit of 14.74 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother net profit of 14.74 billion yuan, or +1.1% year-on-year.
The housing infrastructure business grew steadily, and the profitability of the real estate development business improved: 24Q1 achieved operating income of 549.32 billion yuan, +4.7% over the same period last year, and achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 8.1%, which was basically the same as the previous year. By business, 24Q1's housing construction/infrastructure/real estate development/survey and design business achieved revenue of 3658/1277/465/2.6 billion yuan, respectively, +6.1%/+6.4%/-8.8%/+2.5% year-on-year, and achieved gross profit margins of 6.2%/8.6%/19.2%/10.8%, which were basically flat year-on-year/+0.1pct/+2.9pct/-3.2pct; the company's housing construction and infrastructure business grew steadily, and revenue from the real estate development business was under pressure, but profit quality improved; 24Q1 The overseas business achieved revenue of 22 billion yuan, +3.9% year-on-year.
The net interest rate level is stable, and the cash flow from operating activities is pressured by the real estate business: (1) The 24Q1 company's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 0.3%/1.5%/1.2%/0.8%, respectively, and were basically flat /-0.1pct/+0.3pct, respectively. The increase in financial expense ratios was mainly affected by increased exchange losses; 24Q1's asset/credit impairment losses were -567/31.72 million yuan, respectively, and net investment income was 680 million yuan. YoY -40 billion yuan; under the combined influence, the company's 24Q1 net profit margin was 2.7%, or -0.1 pct; (2) 24Q1's net cash flow from operating activities was -96.06 billion yuan, an increase of 31.17 billion yuan over the previous year, mainly affected by the combination of reduced sales repayments in the real estate business and increased land purchases. The payback ratio/payout ratio was 100.7%/118.7%, respectively. Year-on-year, respectively, -1.5/+3.8pct; as of the end of 24Q1, the company's interest-bearing debt balance was 885.6 billion yuan, +78.3 billion yuan at the end of 23Q4. The balance ratio was 74.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 pct from the end of 23Q4.
Orders for the infrastructure and housing construction business grew steadily in the first quarter, and the order structure was optimized: 24Q1 achieved a new contract amount of 1.19 trillion yuan, +9.6% year over year, of which overseas regions achieved a new contract amount of 27.2 billion yuan, +59.0% year over year; by business, the housing construction business achieved 806.2 billion yuan, +11.4% year over year, of which the share of new contracts signed for industrial plants was 215.7 billion yuan, +39.5% year over year. The share of public construction projects continued to increase; infrastructure business achieved new contracts of 30.5 billion yuan, +23.2% year over year, of which energy engineering/ The amount of new contracts signed in the water and environmental/water conservancy and water transport business increased sharply by 235%/86%/156%; the real estate development business achieved sales of 77.8 billion yuan, and newly purchased land storage was mainly located in first-tier and second-tier cities.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is the world's largest engineering contractor. The new round of state-owned enterprise reform is driving further improvement in business quality, and the “Belt and Road” initiative has brought new opportunities for overseas development.
Based on the slow recovery of real estate investment, we adjusted the company's 2024-2025 net profit forecast to $57.5/60.9 billion yuan (previous value was 585/63.4 billion yuan), adding the 2026 forecast to 65.5 billion yuan. The closing price on April 30 corresponds to PE of 3.9/3.7/3.4 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in the real estate industry fell short of expectations; the growth rate of infrastructure investment fell short of expectations; the “Belt and Road” boosting overseas business fell short of expectations; state-owned enterprise reforms fell short of expectations.