Investors in Middlefield Banc Corp. (NASDAQ:MBCN) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at US$23.19 following the release of its first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$17m were what the analysts expected, Middlefield Banc surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.51 per share, an impressive 23% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Middlefield Banc after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, Middlefield Banc's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$67.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 17% to US$1.72 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$69.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.63 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Middlefield Banc's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target fell 16% to US$24.00, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Middlefield Banc analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$23.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Middlefield Banc is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Middlefield Banc's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Middlefield Banc's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Middlefield Banc's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Middlefield Banc's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Middlefield Banc analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Middlefield Banc .

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