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Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) Shareholders Have Endured a 62% Loss From Investing in the Stock Three Years Ago

Simply Wall St ·  May 4 20:27

Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the long term shareholders of Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ:WBA) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 67% drop in the share price over that period. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 45% in a year. Furthermore, it's down 21% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Walgreens Boots Alliance isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In the last three years, Walgreens Boots Alliance saw its revenue grow by 3.4% per year, compound. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. It's likely this weak growth has contributed to an annualised return of 19% for the last three years. It can be well worth keeping an eye on growth stocks that disappoint the market, because sometimes they re-accelerate. After all, growing a business isn't easy, and the process will not always be smooth.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NasdaqGS:WBA Earnings and Revenue Growth May 4th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Walgreens Boots Alliance will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Walgreens Boots Alliance's TSR for the last 3 years was -62%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Walgreens Boots Alliance had a tough year, with a total loss of 41% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Walgreens Boots Alliance that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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