产销量同比显著提升，效益有所修复。长丝产销方面，2024 年一季度公司涤纶长丝、短纤产销量同比显著提升，POY、FDY、DTY 产量分别为129.2、36.7、19.1 万吨，分别同比+35.6%、+17.8%、+13.5%；销量分别为108.2、32.7、16.9 万吨，分别同比+22.9%、+4.1%、+8.5%；受春节因素影响，2024Q1 长丝销量较2023Q4 略有下滑，POY、FDY、DTY 销量分别环比-18.4%、-13.6%、-23.9%。效益方面，一季度受益油价近乎单边上涨影响，涤纶长丝价差（考虑原料滞后）环比提升，根据中纤网，2024 年一季度POY-PXMEG价差（考虑原料14 天滞后）约1319 元/吨，环比增长107 元/吨。Description of the event
The company released its 2024 quarterly report, achieving operating income of 14.45 billion yuan (+15.5% YoY, -16.3%), realized net profit of 280 million yuan (+45.2% YoY, +38.0%), and realized non-net profit of 230 million yuan (+103.0% YoY, +41.1% YoY).
Incident comments
Production and sales increased significantly year over year, and efficiency was repaired. In terms of filament production and sales, the company's polyester filament and staple fiber production and sales increased significantly year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. POY, FDY, and DTY production were 129.2, 36.7, and 1.91 million tons, respectively; sales volumes were 108.2, 32.7, and 169,000 tons, respectively, +22.9%, +4.1%, and +8.5%; due to Spring Festival factors, 2024Q1 filament sales declined slightly compared to 2023Q4. POY, FDY, and DTY sales volume were slightly lower than 2023Q4. POY, FDY, and DTY sales volume were respectively -18.4%, -13.6%, and -23.9%, respectively. In terms of efficiency, the first quarter benefited from an almost one-sided increase in oil prices. The price spread of polyester filament (considering the lag in raw materials) increased month-on-month. According to China Fiber Network, the POY-PXMEG price difference in the first quarter of 2024 (considering a 14-day lag in raw materials) was about 1,319 yuan/ton, an increase of 107 yuan/ton over the previous month.
I am optimistic about the optimization of the supply and demand pattern of polyester filament, and the boom will improve. Demand side: The apparent consumption of polyester filament in China increased from 21.17 million tons in 2014 to 43.05 million tons in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 8.2%; as the largest category of chemical fiber, polyester has excellent properties such as high elasticity, wear resistance, heat resistance, etc., and its price has obvious advantages over traditional natural fibers such as cotton, etc., and applications such as cotton and wool continue to expand, and the proportion is increasing year by year; overseas clothing stocks have experienced a long process of elimination, which is expected to usher in an improvement in upstream fabric demand. Supply side: The industry boom has bottomed out in the past 2 years, and production capacity of nearly 3 million tons/year has been cleared.
According to our statistics, the net new production capacity of the polyester filament industry in 2024 was only about 410,000 tons, accounting for about 0.8% of the total domestic polyester filament production capacity, and the supply increase was extremely limited; in 2025, the polyester filament industry had some additional production capacity, but the production capacity of various companies expanded in an orderly manner. The tight supply and demand pattern is expected to continue, at least there is no significant excess; in the medium to long term, leading capital expenditure will shift to overseas refining and refining, and domestic polyester filament production expansion is expected to continue at a slower pace. We are optimistic that the supply and demand of polyester filament will improve, and the industry will usher in an upward cycle.
The layout is overseas refining and chemical, and the growth rate is excellent. In June 2023, the company announced that it intends to launch Taikun Petrochemical's integrated refining and chemical project in Indonesia, with a total investment of 8.6 billion US dollars, a scale of 16 million tons/year of oil refining, 5.2 million tons/year of xylene (PX) production capacity and 800,000 tons/year of ethylene. The company indirectly holds 44.1% of the shares of Taikun Petrochemical, the project entity. The overseas layout has broad prospects for refining and chemical development, opening up space for the company's long-term development.
Maintain a “buy” rating. The company is a leading domestic polyester filament enterprise. It has significant scale advantages. It is expected to benefit from the upward trend of polyester filament, huge elasticity, overseas refining and chemical layout, and broad future space. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be $1.85 billion, 26.1 billion, and $3.08 billion, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Demand for clothing falls short of expectations;
2. Crude oil prices fluctuate greatly.