The investors in Oatly Group AB's (NASDAQ:OTLY) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 39% to US$1.21 in the week following its quarterly results. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$199m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 4.8% smaller than expected, with Oatly Group losing US$0.08 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Oatly Group

Following the latest results, Oatly Group's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$829.9m in 2024. This would be a satisfactory 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 58% to US$0.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$832.0m and losses of US$0.29 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$1.98, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Oatly Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$4.00 and the most bearish at US$1.05 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Oatly Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Oatly Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$1.98, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Oatly Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Oatly Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.