It's not a stretch to say that ONE Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:OGS) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Recent times have been pleasing for ONE Gas as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
ONE Gas' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 11% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 3.0% per year as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that ONE Gas is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of ONE Gas' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for ONE Gas that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than ONE Gas. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.