PV prices bottomed out, putting pressure on profits and maintaining the “gain” rating
According to the company's 24Q1 report, the company's 24Q1 revenue was 23.084 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.30%; net profit to mother was 1,176 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.09%; after deducting non-net profit of 191 million yuan, the same decrease of 84.34%.
The sharp decline in the company's 24Q1 profit compared to the same period last year was mainly due to intense competition in the photovoltaic market, low overall prices in the main industry chain, and suppression in some low price markets. We maintained the company's 24/25/26 EPS of 0.58/0.61/0.64 yuan. Referring to Wind's unanimous expectations, it is 7.37 times PE in 24. Considering that the company's N-type TOPCON has a clear leading position and a relatively high advanced production capacity, it has a stronger competitive advantage compared to its peers. It gave the company 14 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 8.12 yuan, and maintained a “gain” rating.
Shipments increased year-on-year, and integrated production capacity continued to expand
In terms of shipments, according to the company's 24Q1 quarterly report, the company achieved a total shipment volume of 21.9 GW in 24Q1, an increase of 51.19% over the same period last year. Among them, the module shipment volume was 19.99 GW, and the silicon wafer and battery shipment volume was 1.91 GW. Against the backdrop of strong demand for PV installations and full orders in hand, the company expects 24Q2 module shipments to be 24-26GW. In terms of production capacity, the large base project in Shanxi is progressing steadily, and the company expects production capacity to continue to expand to 120/110/130GW in 24. We are optimistic about the company's operating flexibility brought about by the release of integrated advanced production capacity, which is expected to support the company's continued strong production and sales.
TOPCON's new technology line leads the dynamic, helping to cross the cycle
The company is a leading TOPCON technology enterprise. The company actively promotes new processes such as LECO, 0BB, double-sided POLY, and TBC to improve quality and reduce costs, and maintain dynamic leadership at the technical level. According to the company's annual report, the company expects TOPCON efficiency to reach 26.5% by the end of 24, leading the industry in efficiency. The company is also active in the field of perovskite. According to the official website, the company uses N-type TopCon batteries to achieve efficient lamination with perovskite, and the conversion efficiency reached 32.33%, leading the transformation of photovoltaic technology. While we are optimistic that TOPCON can become the mainstream technology of crystalline silicon within the next 3-5 years, it will be integrated with next-generation lamination technology in the long term. We are optimistic that the company will maintain its dynamic leading position in N-type technology for a long time.
Steadily promote businesses such as energy storage+BIPV, and explore future performance growth points According to the company's annual report, the company has built a strategic layout for a new energy storage industry. The company's 4GWh energy storage system production line was successfully put into operation in 2023, and construction of subsequent battery and system production capacity is progressing in an orderly manner. In the BNEF energy storage supplier classification list newly released in 2024, the company's energy storage ranked as a Tier 1 supplier.
In terms of photovoltaic building integration (BIPV), products include all-black/color curtain walls, light-transmitting curtain walls, and color steel tile components, which have received good market feedback. Furthermore, the company's BIPV uses a full-floor design to increase installed capacity and maximize power generation revenue.
Risk warning: TOPCON production capacity expansion falls short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in industry prices; risk of industry demand falling short of expectations.