The company's revenue and profit improved quarterly, maintaining a “buy” rating
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 850 million yuan, YoY +3.0%; net profit to mother of 240 million yuan, YoY -15.6%. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 220 million yuan, YoY +14.7%, net profit to mother of 46 million yuan, YoY -3.9%. In 2023, optical component revenue was 420 million yuan, YoY -6.6%, mainly affected by bar code scanning business inventory removal; microscope business revenue was 410 million yuan, YoY +15.8%. On a quarterly basis, although the company's 2023H1 revenue declined year over year due to bar code scanning business demand, 2023Q3 to 2024Q1 revenue has resumed double-digit year-on-year growth. In terms of gross margin, in 2023, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 38.4%, YOY-3.7 pcts. Among them, the gross margin of the optical component series decreased by 6.0 pcts year on year, and the gross margin of the microscope series decreased by 0.9 pcts year on year. On a quarterly basis, the gross margin of 2024Q1 was 37.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 pct and an increase of 2.2 pcts month-on-month. An upward recovery has begun from month to month. The company's revenue was affected by the optical components business. We lowered 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. We expect net profit to be 2.85/3.474/487 million yuan (previous value: 388/472 million yuan) for 2024/2025/2026, EPS 2.56/3.36/4.38 (previous value: 3.51/4.27 yuan), and current stock price corresponding to PE is 28.5/21.7/16.7 times.
The company's complex barcode modules are gradually being deployed, the share of high-end microscopes continues to increase, and lidar and medical products are growing rapidly. Future revenue is expected to maintain steady development and maintain a “buy” rating.
Implementing a “dual engine” strategy for high-end microscopes and optical components to help the company grow through a cycle of high-quality microscopes, the company is leading the domestic replacement of high-end microscopes, and NEXCOPE's high-end series revenue reached nearly 140 million yuan in 2023. With the continuous development of domestic and foreign markets, high-end microscopes are expected to bring continuous and high-quality revenue and profit growth to the company. In terms of optical components, the company's barcode scanning products have begun to expand high-performance, high-complexity module products, and are expected to gradually begin batch shipments in the second half of 2024; the automotive and lidar business will achieve revenue exceeding 90 million in 2023, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. Lidar products have officially entered large-scale production, and 2024Q1 has received new fixed projects such as Hesai and Tudatong. In terms of medical optics, the company achieved revenue of 63 million yuan in 2023, and products such as endoscopic lenses and surgical microscopes are progressing smoothly.
Risk warning: The company's product development and production fell short of expectations; demand recovery fell short of expectations; high-end product promotion fell short of expectations; lidar launch progress fell short of expectations.