On April 26, 2024, Haitian Flavors released the 2023 Annual Report and the 2024 First Quarter Report.
Key points of investment
A good start in the first quarter was good, and falling costs were beneficial to profits
The company's total revenue for 2023/2023Q4/2024Q1 respectively
245.59/59.09/7.694 billion yuan, -4%/-9%/+10%, respectively, and net profit to mother was 56.27/12.98/1.919 billion yuan, respectively, -9%/-15%/+12% year-on-year, respectively. On the profit side, the gross margin of the 2023/2024Q1 company was 34.74%/37.31%, respectively, -1 pct/+0.4 pct, mainly due to a decrease in raw material costs. The sales expenses ratio was 5.32%/5.50%, -0.1 pct/+0.3 pct year on year, respectively. The 2023/2024Q1 management expenses ratio was 2.14%/1.61%, respectively, and the cost performance was relatively stable. The overall result was the 2023/2024Q1 company's net Interest rates were 22.97%/25.06%, respectively, -1.2pct/+0.4pct year-on-year, with marginal improvement in profitability. Dividend plan. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 6.60 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 65%.
According to the 2024 business plan, the company's planned revenue target for 2024 is 27.51 billion yuan, and the net profit target to mother is 6.23 billion yuan.
Demand for catering channels has recovered, and core categories have improved marginally
Core categories were under pressure in 2023. The company's revenue for soy sauce/sauce/oyster sauce/other products in 2023 was 126.37/24.27/42.51/3.499 billion yuan, respectively, -9%/-6%/-4%/+19%, respectively, and sales volume of soy sauce/sauce/oyster sauce was 229.82/28.35/ 8611,000 tons, respectively, a decrease of 8%/0.4%/2%, respectively. Due to the recovery of the restaurant side, sales of medium and large products dragged down the tonnage price by 1%/6%/2%, respectively. 0.86/0.49 million yuan/ton. The 2024Q1 catering market is gradually recovering. The revenue of 2024Q1's soy sauce/sauce/oyster sauce/other products was 40.85/8.01/12.82/1,067 billion yuan respectively, up 10%/6%/10%/22% respectively. The core categories accelerated growth, mainly due to the recovery of catering channels/dealer inventory replenishment. The company will continue to increase the launch of healthy products to achieve product structure optimization.
Dealer optimization continues to advance, and each region is growing steadily
Dealer optimization work continues to advance. The online channel growth rate is relatively fast. In 2023, the company's offline/online channel revenue was 219.26/889 million yuan, down 4%/10%, respectively, and 2024Q1 revenue was 69.43/291 billion yuan, up 11%/21% respectively. As of 2024Q1, the company had a total of 6506 dealers, a net decrease of 85 from the beginning of the year. The company continued to promote dealer optimization, drive dealers to remove warehouses, and eliminate inefficient dealers to ensure high-quality terminal development. With the increase in the restaurant chain rate, The company set up an independent agency to undertake Big B business to speed up the product matrix and channel layout. The Southern Region performed better than the overall performance. In 2023, the East/South/Central/North/West region's revenue was 43.54/45.00/50.49/59.25/2,986 billion yuan respectively, down 7%/2%/4%/5%/1%, respectively, and 2024Q1 revenue was 14.37/13.50/16.35/18.76/937 billion yuan, respectively, up 10%/22%/6%/10%/10%/10%/10%/10%, respectively.
Profit forecasting
The company continues to optimize supply chain collaboration, improve production, supply and marketing efficiency, and effectively tap operating potential. The restaurant side still has resilience. The future company is expected to release performance elasticity as the industry improves. According to the annual report and quarterly report, EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.18/1.34/1.49 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 33/29/26 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption recovery falling short of expectations, increased industry competition, falling short of expectations in production capacity construction or utilization, falling short of expectations, new product promotion falling short of expectations, etc.