各业务营收规模下滑，盈利能力短期承压。1）按应用领域分，航空、航天、船舶、铁路等高可靠特种领域实现营业收入9.68 亿元，YoY-7.94%，受下游客户需求节奏调整收入下滑；通信及数据中心领域实现营业收入4.82 亿元，YoY-26.03%，宏观环境及行业周期波动影响下订单下滑。2）2023 年，公司毛利率/净利率分别为45.46%/6.60%，同比下降2.35/9.90ppt；1Q24，公司毛利率/净利率分别为39.18%/-19.31%，同比下降10.01/42.18ppt，规模降低、产品结构变化和价格波动等因素导致盈利能力短期承压。2023 and 1Q24 results fall short of market expectations
The company announced its 2023 and 1Q24 results: in 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,467 billion yuan, YoY -14.40%; realized net profit to mother of 97 million yuan, YoY -65.75%. In 1Q24, the company achieved operating income of 200 million yuan, YoY -59.84%; realized net profit to mother of 39 million yuan, YoY -133.89%. Market demand fell short of expectations due to fluctuations in special industry purchase orders and the impact of the communications and data center industry cycle, and the 2023 and 1Q24 results fell short of market expectations.
Development trends
The revenue scale of various businesses declined, and profitability was under pressure in the short term. 1) According to application areas, high-reliability special fields such as aviation, aerospace, ships, and railways achieved operating revenue of 968 million yuan, YoY -7.94%, which declined due to the pace of downstream customer demand; the communications and data center sector achieved revenue of 482 million yuan, YoY -26.03%, and orders declined due to fluctuations in the macro environment and industry cycle. 2) In 2023, the company's gross margin/net margin was 45.46%/6.60%, down 2.35/9.90ppt; in 1Q24, the company's gross margin/net margin was 39.18%/-19.31% respectively, down 10.01/42.18ppt year on year. Factors such as scale reduction, product structure changes and price fluctuations put pressure on profitability in the short term.
R&D investment continues to grow to strengthen product competitiveness, and impairment of goodwill affects net profit. 1) In 2023, the company's R&D expenses were 332 million yuan, YoY +27.98%, and investment in integrated circuits, electric drives and data center business continued to increase; the company combined self-developed control and driver chips and localization supporting capabilities to develop more than 500 highly reliable localized models. The scope of new research projects covered module power supplies, customized power supplies for aerospace, etc. We believe that the company's continued investment in new research projects is expected to further enhance product category advantages and enhance customer stickiness and industry competitiveness. 2) Affected by industry fluctuations in 2023, the holding subsidiary Yongli Technology is expected to fall short of expectations, and the company calculated a goodwill impairment of 49 million yuan.
Production capacity expansion and upgrades continue to advance, and the dominant position of special power supply leaders is stable. 1) The company's production expansion and intelligent production line construction continue to advance. The subsidiary Shenzhen Leineng's 5G communication and server power supply expansion project was the first to achieve automated and intelligent production line upgrades in the field of communication and server power supplies. The company's special power supply expansion project and high-reliability SiP power microsystem product industrialization project were completed at the end of 2023.
We believe that capacity building is expected to improve the company's production efficiency and further enhance its core competitiveness. 2) The company is a leading domestic special power supply. We believe that the company's active layout of commercial satellites and new energy is expected to use its first-mover advantage to inject new volume, and long-term growth can be expected in the context of a stable leading position in the industry.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering fluctuations in downstream demand and the pace of product delivery, we lowered our 2024 net profit forecast by 66.2% to 119 million yuan, and introduced a 2025 net profit forecast of 183 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2024/2025 41.4/27.0x P/E. Considering that the company is a leader in the field of special power supplies and can be expected to grow for a long time, we maintain a superior industry rating; as a leader in special power supplies, the company continues to expand new products and is expected to form a second growth curve. We will give a certain valuation premium, take into account profit forecast adjustments, and lower the target price by 39.9% to 11.82 yuan, corresponding to 53.7/35.0 x P/E in 2024/2025, with a potential increase of 29.6%.
risks
1) Risk of fluctuations in downstream demand; 2) Risk of orders and deliveries falling short of expectations.
