线下门店有序扩张，线上收入端回归正增长。2023 年全年公司分销售模式来看，电商/加盟/直营零售/团购业务营业收入增速分别同比变动-32.58%/-6.67%/+21.69%/-0.51%。全年收入线上业务占比约39.8%，同比下滑32.6%；线下业务占比约60.2%，同比增长3.5%；直营业务收入增长较快预计主要与公司全年线下开店策略围绕直营门店有关，2023Q4 公司净闭店51 家，全年公司净开门店67 家，其中直营/加盟门店分别1256/2037 家，全年公司门店数量达到3293 家，实现线下门店有序扩张。2024Q1 公司分销售模式来看，电商/加盟/直营零售/团购业务营业收入增速分别同比变动+6.65%/-16%/10.16%/57.32%，电商业务收入端回归正增长，团购业务表现亮眼预计主要系公司对部分品类降价后客单量有所提升以及春节旺季错配背景下礼盒等品类销售情况较好有关。2024Q1 末公司门店数量3153 家，净闭店140 家，其中加盟/直营门店分别1980/1173 家；净闭店预计主要与公司一季度统一集中对效益相对较差的门店做闭店处理有关。Description of the event
The company released the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 8.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.76%; realized net profit of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.26%. Among them, the 2023Q4 company achieved operating income of 2,046 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.02%; and realized net profit to mother of 11.019 million yuan. In 2024, Q1 achieved operating income of 2,451 billion yuan, an increase of 2.79% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 62.483 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.98%.
Incident comments
Offline stores have expanded in an orderly manner, and the online revenue side has returned to positive growth. Looking at the company's sales model for the full year of 2023, the revenue growth rate of e-commerce, franchise/direct retail/group buying business changed by -32.58%/-6.67%/+21.69%/-0.51%, respectively. Online business accounted for about 39.8% of annual revenue, down 32.6% year on year; offline business accounted for about 60.2%, up 3.5% year on year; direct business revenue growth is mainly expected to be related to the company's annual offline store opening strategy centered around direct-managed stores. 2023Q4 closed 51 stores and the company opened 67 net stores throughout the year, including 1256/2037 direct/franchise stores respectively. The number of company stores reached 3,293 throughout the year, achieving an orderly expansion of offline stores. Looking at 2024Q1's sales model, the revenue growth rate of e-commerce, franchise/direct retail/group buying business changed by +6.65%/-16%/10.16%/57.32% year-on-year, respectively. The e-commerce business revenue side returned to positive growth. The group buying business performance is expected to be mainly related to the increase in customer order volume after the price reduction of some categories and the better sales situation in categories such as gift boxes in the context of the Spring Festival peak season. At the end of 2024Q1, the number of company stores was 3153, and 140 were net closed, of which the franchised/directly managed stores were 1,173, respectively; the net closure is expected to be mainly related to the company's unified concentration on closing relatively inefficient stores in the first quarter.
Price system adjustments have temporarily put pressure on the company's profitability. In 2023, the company's net profit margin fell 1.31pct to 2.24%, with gross margin rising 0.18pct to 27.75%; 2023Q4 net profit margin fell 2.51pct to -0.54%, gross margin fell 0.43pct to 25.43%, and the period expense ratio increased 2.63pct to 26.87%, with sales expenses rate/ management expense ratio/ R&D expense ratio/ financial expense ratio+1.43pct/1.09pct/0.14pct/+ 0.25pct
2024Q1's net profit margin fell 3.69 pct to 2.55%, gross margin fell 2.74 pct to 26.43%, and the period expense ratio decreased by 0.11 pct to 22.35%. Among them, sales expense ratio/management cost rate/R&D cost rate/financial expense ratio changed by +0.44pct/-0.2pct/-0.34pct/0pct/, respectively. The profitability of 2023Q4 is mainly due to the fact that the company mainly opens directly managed stores throughout the year, and the impact of amortization of store expenses was relatively prominent in the context of price adjustments in some categories at the end of the year, causing losses; price adjustments for some categories also temporarily put pressure on the company's 2024Q1 profitability.
The company's profitability is expected to continue to improve due to the collaborative development of omni-channel first-release bureaus. Looking ahead to the whole year, although the company's offline prices have been adjusted in some categories, it is expected that price will be exchanged for volume in the medium term, and offline revenue is expected to grow steadily as stores are developed in an orderly manner; online continues to diversify the layout of emerging channels, and the impact of decentralized traffic is gradually fading, and online revenue has begun to gradually pick up. In the context of a weak recovery, there is pressure to adjust and open the company's offline stores in the short term, but as the economy recovers and customer orders gradually recover, it is expected that the company's continued cost-side optimization will gradually reduce the impact of category price adjustments. The company's 2024/2025 EPS is expected to be 0.45/0.52 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE stock price, which is 33/28 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Changes in industry channels have led to an intensification of the competitive landscape;
2. Food safety issues, etc.
