FX168 Financial News (Europe) News Entering the European market on Wednesday (May 1), US stock index futures fell before the Federal Reserve announced its policy decision. Markets are closed in many parts of Europe and Asia, trading is weak, and the market is also full of cautious sentiment. The US dollar index rose slightly, only slightly below its highest level since November last year. Looking ahead to the future market, in addition to the Fed's interest rate decision stealing the limelight, traders will also pay close attention to US ADP employment changes and Jolts job vacancy data to gain new trading momentum before the Fed meeting.
Given the market's general bet that the Federal Reserve will announce that interest rates will remain unchanged, traders will focus on the subsequent press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) to find the time for the “first drop.”
Three major US data will be released before the Federal Reserve's decision
Later, changes in ADP employment numbers in the US for April will be announced. It is expected to increase by 175,000, compared to an increase of 184,000 in March.
The employment data released by ADP is an important data reflecting the job market situation in addition to the official non-farm payrolls data released by the US Department of Labor, and is called “small non-farm workers” by investors.
The US JoLTS job vacancy data for March is expected to be 8.725 million, compared to 8.756 million in February; the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April will be released, which is expected to be 50.0, compared to 50.3 in March.
#美联储政策转向 #
Lilian Chovin, head of asset allocation at Coutts Bank (Coutts), said: “We are unlikely to hear any dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve today.” “For the market, long-term high narratives are not easy to navigate.”
Traders are preparing for large swings in the stock market, and the bond market is becoming more pessimistic before many expected the Federal Reserve to take a hawkish stance.
After targeting multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 at the beginning of the year, investors now expect to cut interest rates only once, by 25 basis points.
The options market shows that the S&P 500 has fluctuated more than at any time in the past 11 months.
Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said: “If the Federal Reserve claims that it is likely not to cut interest rates this year, or even raise interest rates again, this could exacerbate the sell-off in the stock market.”
Meanwhile, data for the week ending April 23 showed that hedge funds had short positions in bond futures.
Bank of America strategists said that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are currently at a level close to the “maximum short-term period.”
In addition to the Federal Reserve's decision, traders will also absorb Amazon's strong cloud division sales, as well as the lukewarm revenue forecast for AMD, the second-largest computer processor manufacturer, published on Tuesday evening.
According to data from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, Japanese officials may have spent about 5.5 trillion yen (about 35.05 billion US dollars) to intervene in the foreign exchange market on Monday. USD/JPY is currently at the level of 157.9. #日本市场 #
Oil prices fell for the third day in a row on Wednesday due to growing hopes for a cease-fire agreement in the Middle East and an increase in crude oil inventories and production in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.
Brent crude fell 1% to $85.40 a barrel; U.S. crude fell 1.3% to $80.90.
The price of gold remained flat at $2284.4 per ounce, down 6% from its all-time high in mid-April, and was also affected by #中东局势 #缓和的影响。
#外汇技术分析 #美元指数
FXEmpire analyst Arslan Ali said that the US dollar index is slightly above the set pivot point of 106.207, indicating a moderate bullish undercurrent recently.
The first significant resistance will be at 106.536, with further resistance at 106.871 and 107.266. These levels will test the strength of the US dollar over the next trading day.
The support level started at 105.927 and extended to 105.537 and 105.214, which could play a key role in buffering any downward movement.
The 50-day and 200-day MAs are 105.90 and 105.16, respectively, highlighting the overall bullish trend, but also the potential for volatility.
The US dollar index showed a bullish trend above the pivot, but breaking through 106.536 is critical to maintaining the upward momentum.
(Source: FXEMPIRE)
EUR/USD
Arslan Ali said that the euro is currently below today's pivot point of 1.0683, indicating a bearish trend in short-term market sentiment.
Direct resistance will be at 1.0735, and additional barriers will be at 1.0766 and 1.0793, which may limit the upward movement.
Instead, support levels are at 1.0631, 1.0603, and 1.0575.
The 50-day and 200-day MAs are at 1.0694 and 1.0746, respectively, indicating that the euro is crossing a key range.
A break above the pivot point of 1.0683 could skew the balance towards a bullish outlook.
(Source: FXEMPIRE)
GBP/USD
Arslan Ali said that the pound is still below the key pivot point of 1.25198, indicating recent bearish sentiment and will encounter resistance at 1.25786.
It is then necessary to break through the thresholds at 1.26401 and 1.27087 in order to launch a stronger upward trend.
Conversely, support is at 1.24669, and further safety nets are at 1.24163 and 1.23656, and falling below these levels could lead to a larger decline.
The 50-day and 200-day MAs are 1.24894 and 1.25486, respectively, indicating that the pound is hovering near the key transition zone.
The pound showed a bearish stance below the pivot point and is likely to turn bullish if it stays above 1.24669.
(Source: FXEMPIRE)