新签订单平稳增长，境外订单增势较好。2024Q1 公司新签合同额5506.9亿元，同比增长2.05%，为年度计划的18.35%。分业务看，工程承包/投资运营/物资物流/绿色环保分别新签合同额4101/464/340/277 亿元，同比变动+3.1%/+6.7%/-12.8%/+36.7%。基础设施建设项目新签合同额4842 亿元，同比+4.9%，其中房建/矿山开采/水利水运/电力工程分别同比大幅增长43%/295%/44%/47%；铁路/公路/城轨/市政工程分别同比下降43%/59%/12%/17%，铁路、公路工程降幅较大主要受市场影响，项目招标总量减少。分地区看，境内/境外分别新签合同额5167/339 亿元，同比+1.5%/+11.9%，境外订单增势较好。Revenue performance was stable in Q1, and growth is expected to accelerate in Q2. 2024Q1 achieved operating income of 274.95 billion yuan, up 0.5% year on year; realized net profit of 6.03 billion yuan, up 2.0% year on year; net profit without return to mother was 5.78 billion yuan, up 2.0% year on year. Revenue performance is stable, in line with expectations. The low growth rate is expected to be mainly due to the slow pace of project construction in the first quarter due to factors such as slow issuance of special bonds and localized bonds. Subsequent infrastructure funding improvements are expected to drive the company to speed up project execution and revenue conversion, and Q2 performance is expected to accelerate growth at a lower base (23Q2 revenue/performance growth rates were -3.1%/-1.4%, respectively).
Profitability improved slightly and cash outflows increased. The 2024Q1 company's gross margin was 7.79%, YoY +0.02 pcts. The cost rate for the period was 4.23%, YoY+0.09 pcts, of which the sales/management/development/finance expense ratio YoY-0.03/+0.07/-0.04/+0.10 pcts. The increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in interest expenses due to the increase in the size of interest-bearing debt. Asset (including credit) impairment losses were underestimated by 130 million dollars year over year. Investment income increased by 240 million over the same period last year. Income tax rate YoY - 1.1 pct. Net profit margin 2.19%, YoY +0.03 pct. The net cash outflow from operating activities was 46.59 billion yuan, an increase of 7.38 billion yuan over the previous year. It is estimated that payments are slow due mainly to financial constraints of some owners.
The payout ratio was 105%/120%, YoY-1.2/+1.3 pct, respectively.
New orders are growing steadily, and overseas orders are growing well. 2024Q1 signed a new contract amount of 55.69 billion yuan, an increase of 2.05% over the previous year, or 18.35% of the annual plan. By business, engineering contracting/investment and operation/material logistics/green environmental protection signed new contract amounts of 4101/464/340/27.7 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year change of +3.1%/+6.7%/-12.8%/+36.7%. The amount of new contracts signed for infrastructure construction projects was 484.2 billion yuan, +4.9% year-on-year. Among them, housing construction/mining/water conservancy and water transport/power engineering increased sharply by 43%/295%/44%/47% year on year; railway/highway/urban rail/municipal engineering decreased by 43%/59%/12%/17%, respectively. The large decline in railway and highway engineering was mainly affected by the market, and the total number of project tenders decreased. By region, the amount of new contracts signed domestic/overseas was 5167/33.9 billion yuan respectively, +1.5%/+11.9% over the same period last year. Overseas orders increased relatively well.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 282/301/31.9 billion yuan respectively, up 8.0%/6.9%/5.8%, EPS 2.08/2.22/2.35 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE 4.1/3.8/3.6 times, and the latest PB-LF is 0.45 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, risk of overseas business operations, risk of impairment of accounts receivable.
