2024Q1，公司实现营收7 亿元，同比+15%；归母净利润0.5 亿元，同比+40%；扣非归母净利润0.5 亿元，同比+47%；毛利率23.6%，环比+4.9pct，同比+4.4pct；净利率7.1%，环比+2.4pct，同比+1.2pct。Incidents:
On April 23, 2024, Shangneng Electric released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: 2023, annual revenue of 4.9 billion yuan, +111% year on year; net profit of 290 million yuan, +250% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 280 million yuan, +295% year on year; gross profit margin 19.2%, +1.9 pct year on year; net profit margin 5.8%, +2.3 pct year on year; net profit margin 5.6%, year on year +2.6 pct.
Among them, 2023Q4 had revenue of 1.6 billion yuan, +43% month-on-month, +27%; net profit of 80 million yuan, +6% month-on-month, +114% year-on-year; net profit net profit of 80 million yuan, +10% month-on-month, +129% year-on-year; gross profit margin 18.7%, -5.0 pct month-on-month, +1.1 pct; net profit margin 4.8%, month-on-month, +1.9pct year-on-year.
2024Q1, the company achieved revenue of 700 million yuan, +15% year on year; net profit of 50 million yuan, +40% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 50 million yuan, +47% year on year; gross profit margin of 23.6%, +4.9 pct month on month, +4.4 pct year on year; net profit margin 7.1%, +2.4 pct month on month, +1.2 pct year on year.
Investment highlights:
The PV and energy storage business both achieved high revenue growth in 2023. In 2023, the company achieved PV inverter revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, +135% year-on-year, gross profit margin of 20.3%, year-on-year +0.6pct; energy storage bidirectional converter and system integration products of 1.9 billion, +89%, gross profit margin 16.2%, year-on-year +3.8pct; revenue of power quality control products of 90 million, +42% year-on-year; and revenue of spare parts and technical services of 0.3 billion yuan, +21% year over year. Among them, the rapid growth in the main business is due to a sharp increase in the installed capacity of national photovoltaic and energy storage projects, driving demand growth, and superposition companies to increase gross margins through R&D and commercial cost reduction.
The company is a leading domestic inverter and PCS company, and is expected to benefit from domestic photovoltaic energy storage two-wheel drive. In 2023, China added 216.88 GW of PV installed capacity, with a cumulative installed capacity of more than 600 GW, ranking first in the world in terms of new and cumulative installed capacity. According to the forecast of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the new and cumulative installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW and 810GW in 2024. The sharp drop in raw material prices is compounded by the policy guidelines of about 455GW of total installed capacity at the Fengguang base in 2030, and domestic PV installations have entered a rapid growth cycle. The energy structure transformation represented by the continuous penetration of clean energy was compounded by the increase in domestic policies to install more than 30 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity in 2025, and the demand for installed energy storage is growing rapidly. In 2022, the company's photovoltaic inverter product shipments ranked fourth in China and eighth in the world, and inverter shipments continued to maintain the top ten global industry positions for many years; since 2021, the company has been ranked first in the country for three consecutive years in the number of high-power PCS shipments of energy storage third parties above 215 kW, leading the energy storage converter industry; the company is expected to benefit from consolidating the moat of core products and taking advantage of the boom in the industry to reach new highs.
The company is actively exploring overseas markets, and the overseas optical storage business is expected to contribute to future performance growth. Demand in the overseas optical storage market has increased significantly, and Chinese enterprises have accelerated the layout of the overseas energy storage market. Currently, Chinese suppliers have taken a dominant position in the global photovoltaic inverter market share. At present, the company has completed the layout of major global PV market countries including the United States, Europe, the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia. Among them, sales companies have been set up in Europe, the Middle East, and India; high-power energy storage PCS has received multiple orders for 100 megawatt projects in the North American market, and the overseas superimposed energy storage boom is expected to contribute to future performance growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is a leading supplier in the domestic photovoltaic and energy storage market, and is expected to benefit from the strong prospects of optical storage. We adjusted the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that in 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 71/94/119 billion yuan and net profit to mother of 5.5/7.6/1.01 billion yuan. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 18X, 13X, and 10X, respectively, maintaining a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: policy risk, increased risk of market competition, greater risk of accounts receivable, risk of exchange rate risk, international trade protection and increased friction.
