2024Q1's performance was high year-on-year, with sufficient growth, maintaining the “buy” rating to achieve revenue of 5.174 billion yuan, +15.84% year over year; net profit to mother of 441 million yuan, +0.76% year on year; minus non-net profit of 359 million yuan, -14.31% year on year; gross profit margin 22.25%, +0.50 pcts year over year. In a single quarter of 2024Q1, we achieved revenue of 1,363 billion yuan, +51.06% YoY, -15.13%; net profit to mother of 123 million yuan, +37.72% YoY, +32.69% month-on-month; deducted non-net profit of 100 million yuan, +39.57% YoY, +46.33% month-on-month; gross profit margin 22.08%, -2.25pcts YoY, +0.55pcts month-on-month. Considering that the recovery of the downstream market falls short of expectations, we lowered our 2024/2025 forecast and added the 2026 performance forecast. We expect net profit to be 6.41/8.61 billion yuan (previous value was 704/897 million yuan) for 2024/2025/2026, and EPS is expected to be 2.32/3.12/3.79 yuan (previous value was 2.55/3.25 yuan). The current stock price corresponding to PE is 14.4/10.8/8.8 times. We are optimistic The growth momentum brought about by targeted mass production in the NEV business maintains a “buy” rating.
The NEV electronic control business led to revenue growth. High sales cost performance remained stable. By product, it benefited from continuous diversification of product application scenarios. In 2023, chargers and adapters achieved revenue of 3,959 billion yuan (accounting for 76.52%), +12.74% year-on-year, gross profit margin 20.65%, year-on-year +1.30pcts; energy storage and others achieved revenue of 667 million yuan (accounting for 12.90%), +12.98% YoY, gross profit margin 35.24%, +0.20pcts year on year; NEV electronic control products and solutions achieved Revenue of 547 million yuan (accounting for 10.58%), +50.36% year over year, gross profit margin 17.97%, -5.30 pcts year over year. In 2023, affected by brand promotion and channel construction, sales expenses increased. In 2023, sales expenses were 165 million yuan, +89.53% compared with the same period last year. The company's non-recurring profit and loss in 2023 was $82 million.
Mobile phone demand recovery+increased fast charging penetration rate+sufficient growth in mass production of automobile customers+server power supply. IDC and other research institutes predict that the mobile phone market will return to growth in 2024. With the overall increase in the fast charging penetration rate, the company's mobile phone charger business is expected to continue to grow; in 2023, the company's power domain control PDCU1.0 completed development and customer targeting. The low-voltage BMS has completed the development and mass production of the three platforms. As products continue to be mass-produced, the company's NEV electronic control business is expected to continue to grow; the company's 2000W mainstream server power supply is expected to continue to grow in 2023 Mass production development has been completed, and the company's server power supply business is expected to continue to grow as the product continues to be mass-produced.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; promotion of new products falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies.