The company released its quarterly report, with 24Q1 revenue of 267 million yuan, yoy +28.7%; net profit to mother was 91 million yuan, +172% over the same period last year, slightly exceeding expectations.
The growth rate of the 3 old products is stable. The sources of growth are (1) the commercial launch of the new 23M5 pre-filled dose of Yisaipu, which bucked the trend, yoy +25.72% (Guangdong Union Collection reduced the price to 127 yuan in 2022, expanding the scope in 2023-2024); (2) saiptin (HER2 monoclonal antibody) 24Q1, yoy +60.14%; (3) continued promotion of hospital coverage, 24q1yoY +90.75%.
IL17 ranked 3rd in the domestic market, and there is a huge clinical unmet demand in the psoriasis market. The prevalence of psoriasis in China is 0.47%, corresponding to nearly 7 million patients. Currently, the main treatment is traditional therapy, and the penetration rate of biological agents is low. It can support large sales volumes from 2022 to 2023, which suggests that IL17 is used in the huge market for psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis. Two new IL23s are also being commercialized, and the market size is rapidly expanding. The global market IL17+IL23 has exceeded 10 billion US dollars. Sansheng Guojian is ahead of the curve, compounding the advantages of commercialization. The speed of sales and peak sales are expected to be optimistic.
The second tier of IL4 has begun registration for phase 3 clinical trials, targeting a huge population of AD. There are more than 70 million AD patients in China, 25% of which are moderate to severe and require systematic treatment intervention. Imported biologics products have been released in large quantities from 2022 to 2023, and initial market education in the AD market has been completed. Sansheng Guojian IL4R monoclonal antibody has initiated phase 3 clinical trials with 23M12. The phase 2 clinical results are significantly superior to the control group, and production is expected to be reported in 2026. At the same time, it will expand to multiple indications such as chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps in the future.
Self-immune diseases are drugs used for chronic diseases. Treatment costs for individual patients are relatively low and scattered. Therefore, judging future sales peak/operating profit depends more on commercialization factors: channel reach and decline, brand awareness, and accumulation of marketing talents. Sansheng Guojian has accumulated in the field of self-defense in 19 years, and has a high platform value for commercial team infrastructure.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect that in 2024-2026, the company will achieve operating income of 13.07/13.55/ 1,638 billion yuan and net profit of 408/3.60/439 million yuan (the previous forecast was 2024-2025 revenue of 1,133/1,196 million yuan and net profit to mother of 323/274 million yuan. The forecast was raised because the company's performance in the first quarter was better than expected). As a leading company in the field of self-immunity in China, the company has strong R&D capabilities, and the next clinical pipeline is about to enter commercialization. The company's business fundamentals progressed smoothly in the first quarter and maintained a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Revenue from commercial products falls short of expectations; risk that clinical development progress falls short of expectations; risk of competition between similar competitors and new technology treatments; there is a risk that public materials used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.