光伏在手订单充足。2023 年公司光伏自动化生产线业务实现收入55.02 亿元，同比增长68.76%；纸板包装机械业务实现收入8.17亿元，同比增长19.75%；铸造产品业务实现收入3.68 亿元，同比增长0.68%；3C 自动化生产线业务实现收入2.72 亿元，同比下降22.28%。截至2023 年12 月31 日，公司光伏板块在手订单97.79亿元（含税），订单储备充足。Incidents:
Jingshan Light Machinery released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report on April 24: in 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.214 billion yuan, an increase of 48.20% over the previous year; realized net profit of 337 million yuan, an increase of 11.45% year on year; realized net profit without return to mother of 316 million yuan, an increase of 11.58% year on year. In 2024Q1, the company achieved revenue of 2,032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.12%; realized net profit of 130 million yuan, an increase of 143.82% over the previous year; realized net profit without deduction of 122 million yuan, an increase of 157.01% over the previous year.
Investment highlights:
There are plenty of PV orders in hand. In 2023, the company's automated photovoltaic production line business achieved revenue of 5.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.76%; the cardboard packaging machinery business achieved revenue of 817 million yuan, an increase of 19.75%; the foundry products business achieved revenue of 368 million yuan, an increase of 0.68%; and the 3C automated production line business achieved revenue of 272 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.28%. As of December 31, 2023, the company's photovoltaic sector had on-hand orders of 9.779 billion yuan (tax included), with sufficient order reserves.
There was a slight decline in gross margin. In 2023, the company's gross margin was 20.98%, down 0.49pct year on year, and the net profit margin was 4.66%, down 1.54 pct year on year; by business, the gross margin of the company's automated photovoltaic production line business in 2023 was 21.23%, down 2.48pct year on year; the gross margin of the cardboard packaging machinery business was 24.37%, up 1.49pct year on year; the gross margin of the casting products business was 8.12%, up 6.60 pct year on year; 3C automated production line business gross margin was 21.32%, year on year increase 6.19pct 2024Q1's gross margin was 19.59%, down 0.01pct year on year, and net profit margin was 0.06%, down 0.02pct year on year. The company's expense rate for the 2023 period was 13.95%, up 0.88pct year-on-year. The 2024Q1 company's expense ratio during the period was 11.43%, down 2.62 pcts year over year.
Profit forecast and investment rating Considering that the perovskite industry is still in the early stages of development, and there is uncertainty about the company's equipment development, verification and delivery progress, we are adjusting the company's profit forecast for 2024 and 2025. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 88.45, 10.775, and 12.658 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and achieve net profit of 5.25, 6.80, and 945 million yuan. The current price is 17, 13, and 10 times PE, respectively. The company is a leading domestic enterprise of photovoltaic module equipment and corrugated packaging equipment. In recent years, it has focused on the main equipment industry and developed photovoltaic cell equipment. Perovskite battery equipment is leading domestically. As the industrialization of new types of batteries accelerates, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow steadily and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risks indicate that PV installed capacity falls short of expectations; new product development progress falls short of expectations; risk of technology iteration; increased industry competition; risk of inventory impairment and accounts receivable.
