Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123): 1Q24: SPD continues to pick up, NOR volume accelerates

華泰證券 · Apr 30

1Q24：营收创历史同期最好成绩，盈利能力大幅改善公司1Q24 实现营收2.47 亿元（yoy：+72.49%，qoq：+22.52%），归母净利润0.51 亿元（yoy：+138.05%，qoq：+184.76%），略高于前瞻预期的0.4 亿元；扣除华虹战配导致的公允价值变动损益（-2242 万元）后，归母净利润约0.71 亿元（yoy：+232.08%）。1Q24 营收同环比均实现高增主因：

1）工业/汽车级EEPROM、音圈马达驱动芯片出货量同比快速增长；2）内存模组厂商库存水位改善，SPD 产品销量同比大幅提升；3）NOR Flash实现大批量出货。由于SPD 营收同环比实现增长，毛利率大幅改善，1Q24净利率提升至20.24%。我们预计24/25/26 年归母净利润为3.40/5.44/7.02亿元，考虑新产品释放营收仍需一段时间，给予35x 24PE（可比公司wind一预期40x 24PE），目标价75.3 元，维持“买入”评级。

1Q24 回顾：存储/马达驱动营收均实现环比增长，NOR Flash 放量加速24 年伴随下游应用市场需求回暖以及公司技术升级，公司EEPROM、音圈马达驱动芯片等主要业务线营收均实现同环比增长。值得关注的是，1Q24512Kb-32Mb 容量的NOR Flash 产品已实现大批量出货，64Mb-128Mb 的NOR Flash 产品已成功完成流片，1Q24 NOR Flash 出货量超过5600 万颗，单季度销量占2023 年全年销量比例接近70%。得益于SPD 及汽车级EEPROM 产品销量同环比快速增长，1Q24 毛利率54.62%（yoy：+7.11pct，qoq：+7.03pct）。费用方面，1Q24 公司研发费用0.39 亿元，研发费用率同环比分别下降8.34/6.21pct 至15.8%。截至1Q24 末公司存货2.19 亿元，较23 年末下降0.06 亿元，存货周转天数（178 天）已回落到22 年末水平（174 天）。

2024 展望：SPD 出货恢复高增，关注NOR 工艺平台竞争优势去年12 月以来SPD 产品销量回暖趋势明显，在近2 个季度业绩中均得到验证。展望24 年，DDR5 有望加速渗透，SPD 将持续保持高增，带动公司毛利率维持较高水平。新品方面，NOR Flash 产品有望借助NORD 工艺优势实现市场份额和品牌影响力的不断提升；公司积极向欧洲、韩国、日本等海外市场拓展，与国内外主流汽车厂商及Tier1 供应商保持紧密合作，车规EEPROM 全年销量有望实现显著增长。此外，部分型号OIS 音圈马达驱动芯片已通过智能手机厂商的测试验证，今年有望开始陆续起量。

投资建议：目标价75.3 元，维持“买入”评级公司下游应用需求全面回暖，NOR FLASH 业务迎来重要突破，我们预计公司24/25/26 年归母净利润分别为3.40/5.44/7.02 亿元，给予35x 24PE（可比公司Wind 一致预期40x 24PE），目标价75.3 元，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：DDR5 渗透率不及预期，市场竞争加剧，新品推广不及预期。

1Q24: Revenue achieved the best result in the same period in history, and profitability was greatly improved. The company achieved revenue of 247 million yuan (yoy: +72.49%, qoq: +22.52%) and net profit to mother of 51 million yuan (yoy: +138.05%, qoq: +184.76%), slightly higher than the forward-looking forecast of 40 million yuan; after deducting the profit and loss from fair value changes caused by Huahong Match (-22.42 million yuan), net profit to mother was about 71 million yuan (yoy: +232.08%). The main reasons why 1Q24 revenue achieved a high year-on-month increase:

1) Shipments of industrial/automotive-grade EEPROM and voice coil motor driver chips increased rapidly year on year; 2) Memory module manufacturer inventory levels improved, and SPD product sales increased dramatically year on year; 3) NOR Flash achieved mass shipment. Due to SPD's year-on-month revenue growth, gross margin improved significantly, and 1Q24 net margin increased to 20.24%. We expect net profit to be 3.40/5.44/702 million yuan for 24/25/26. It will take some time to consider the new product release revenue. We will give 35x 24PE (comparable to the 40x 24PE expected by the company Wind 1), with a target price of 75.3 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.

1Q24 review: Storage/motor drive revenue both achieved month-on-month growth. The acceleration of NOR Flash volume in 24 years was accompanied by a recovery in downstream application market demand and the company's technology upgrades, and the company's main business line revenue such as EEPROM and voice coil motor driver chips all achieved month-on-month growth. It is worth noting that 1Q24512Kb-32Mb NOR Flash products have been shipped in large quantities, and 64Mb to 128Mb NOR Flash products have successfully completed streaming. 1Q24 NOR Flash has shipped more than 56 million units, accounting for nearly 70% of sales in a single quarter. Thanks to rapid year-on-year growth in SPD and automotive-grade EEPROM product sales, 1Q24 gross profit margin was 54.62% (yoy: +7.11pct, qoq: +7.03pct). In terms of expenses, 1Q24's R&D expenses were 39 million yuan, and the R&D expenses rate decreased by 8.34/6.21pct to 15.8%, respectively, compared with the same period last month. As of the end of 1Q24, the company's inventory was 219 million yuan, down 06 million yuan from the end of 23, and the number of inventory turnover days (178 days) had fallen back to the level of the end of '22 (174 days).

2024 outlook: SPD shipments have resumed high growth, focusing on the competitive advantage of NOR process platforms. SPD product sales have clearly picked up since December last year, which has been verified in the past two quarterly results. Looking ahead to 24 years, DDR5 is expected to accelerate penetration, and SPD will continue to grow at a high level, driving the company's gross margin to maintain a high level. In terms of new products, NOR Flash products are expected to use the advantages of the NORD process to achieve a continuous increase in market share and brand influence; the company actively expands into overseas markets such as Europe, South Korea, and Japan, and maintains close cooperation with mainstream domestic and foreign automobile manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers, and the annual sales volume of automotive EEPROM is expected to increase significantly. Furthermore, some OIS voice coil motor driver chips have been tested and verified by smartphone manufacturers, and it is expected that they will be launched one after another this year.

Investment suggestion: The target price is 75.3 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating. The company's downstream application demand has fully recovered, and the NOR FLASH business ushered in an important breakthrough. We expect the company's net profit to be 3.40/5.44/702 million yuan respectively in 24/25/26, giving 35x 24PE (comparable company Wind agreed to expect 40x 24PE), target price 75.3 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: DDR5 penetration falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies, and new product promotion falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

聚辰股份(688123)：1Q24：SPD持续回暖 NOR放量加速

Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123): 1Q24: SPD continues to pick up, NOR volume accelerates

Risk Disclaimer

Statement