多点开花，综合能源服务业务稳步推进。根据公司财报，（1）提高自有发电能力，涪陵白涛、中机龙桥热电一期、150 万吨焦电一体化项目加快建设、黔江区风电项目取得核准；（2）发展综合能源业务，中标本钢板材高压作业区2x135 兆瓦余气资源综合利用发电项目BOT 总包工程；全年新增服务电动重卡620 台、累计服务800 台；（3）2023 年全年累计签约用户侧储能项目101 个、合计容量约380 兆瓦时。Core views:
Operating profits are under pressure, and incoming water is improving. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 11.2 billion yuan (+0.76% YoY), net profit to mother of 516 million yuan (YoY +8.28%), 2024Q1 achieved net profit to mother of 0.12 million yuan (year-on-year loss), and high-margin self-generated power generation increased after water intake improved, but the operating profit of the electricity purchase and sale business decreased 7.5% year on year; the comprehensive energy business achieved operating profit of 93 million yuan (+80.4% year over year); the sale of shares in '22 led to a high return on investment and a 58.8% year-on-year decrease in investment income in '23; Profit and loss from changes in fair value in '23 million yuan (+208 million yuan year on year); asset disposal income was 82 million yuan, other income was 92 million yuan; market conditions affected the profit of electrolytic manganese and a large loss.
Incoming water has improved since power generation has recovered, and demand has increased to better electricity sales. The company has 746,200 kilowatts of installed hydropower, 2,519 million kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2023 (+24.1% year over year), and 298 million kilowatt-hours of power generation in 2024Q1 (+190% year over year). At the same time, thanks to increased customer electricity consumption, it sold 14 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2023 (+3.0% year over year), and the average sales price of electricity was 0.489 yuan/kilowatt-hour (-0.4% year over year). The company plans to distribute electricity/market-based electricity sales by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan reach 200/80 billion kilowatt-hours respectively, with total revenue reaching 15 billion yuan and total assets exceeding 32 billion yuan.
More blossoms have blossomed, and the integrated energy service business is progressing steadily. According to the company's financial report, (1) increasing its own power generation capacity, the Fuling Baitao, China Machinery Longqiao Thermoelectric Phase I, and the 1.5 million ton coke power project was approved; (2) developing a comprehensive energy business and winning the BOT turnkey project for a 2x135 megawatt waste gas resource comprehensive utilization project in the high-pressure steel plate operation area; 620 new electric heavy trucks and 800 units were added throughout the year; (3) A total of 101 user-side energy storage projects were signed throughout 2023, with a total capacity of about 380 megawatt-hours.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 6.6/7.3/780 million yuan, or 21/19/18 times PE, respectively, according to the latest closing price. Incoming water has improved since electricity generation has improved, and integrated energy services have continued to advance. The company was given a 24-year PE valuation of 25 times, corresponding to a reasonable value of 8.65 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Incoming water has fluctuated; the price difference between electricity purchases and sales has narrowed; and progress in comprehensive energy services has fallen short of expectations.
