2024 年第一季度，消费市场规模有所回升，但业态恢复不均衡延续，服务类消费显著好于商品类消费。从公司经营来看，有税方面，24Q1 奥特莱斯（收入同比增长9.5%）及购物中心（收入同比增长3.5%）业态仍有增长，修复速度明显快于百货（收入同比降低11.3%）、超市（收入同比降低31.1%）；免税业务方面，24Q1 公司旗下离岛免税门店王府井国际免税港销售、客流均创新高，其客流同比增长33%，对应地，免税业态实现收入1.2 亿元，占公司营收比增长至3.7%。Incidents:
The company released its report for the first quarter of 2024. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 3.31 billion yuan, -1.7% year over year; net profit to mother was 200 million yuan, -10.9% year on year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 190 million yuan, -13.7% year over year.
The unbalanced recovery continued, and the company's revenue declined year-on-year
In the first quarter of 2024, the size of the consumer market rebounded, but the recovery in the business format continued unevenly, and service consumption was significantly better than commodity consumption. Looking at the company's operations, in terms of tax, the 24Q1 outlet (revenue up 9.5% year over year) and shopping malls (revenue up 3.5% year over year) business is still growing, and the repair speed is significantly faster than department stores (revenue down 11.3% year on year) and supermarkets (revenue down 31.1% year on year); in terms of duty-free business, the outlying islands of 24Q1's outlying island stores, Wangfujing International Duty Free Port, all reached record highs. The passenger flow increased 33% year on year. Correspondence, the duty-free business achieved revenue growth of 120 million yuan, accounting for a 3.7% increase in the company's revenue ratio.
Both gross profit margin and net profit margin have declined, and profitability is under pressure
The gross margin of the 24Q1 company was 41.2%, down 1.6 pct from the previous year. Although the pressure on gross margin of the taxable business was obvious, along with the continuous development of the business, the gross margin of the duty-free business was 18.0%, an increase of 3.4 pct over the previous year. The company's expense ratio was properly controlled during the same period. The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 13.3%, 15.2%, and 0.5%, respectively. The sales expense ratio and management expenses increased by 0.1 pct/1.2 pct year on year, respectively, but the financial expense ratio decreased by 1.8 pct year on year. Overall, since the company's new business format and new stores are still in the cultivation period, the revenue increase is not enough to cover relatively fixed costs and expenses. In addition, high-rent projects with long leases are greatly affected by the new leasing guidelines in the early stages of leasing, and there is still some pressure on the company's profits. In 24Q1, the company's net profit margin was 6.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 pct.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-26 to be 134.4/145.7/15.37 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%/8.4%/5.5%, net profit to mother of 8.6/10.9/1.28 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%/27.2%/17.2%, EPS 0.8/1.0/1.1 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 21.6%.
In view of the company's firm commitment to the development of multiple business formats and the continuous development of the duty-free business, we are optimistic that the company will continue to grow. According to the Segment Valuation Act, the company will be given 25 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 18.83 yuan, maintaining an “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Economic growth is slowing; consumption recovery falls short of expectations; tax exemption progress falls short of expected risk.
