Low pig prices dragged down 24Q1 profits. There is steady growth, and there is still room for improvement in costs
Under the influence of weak pig prices, the company achieved net profit to mother of 254 million yuan in 24Q1, increasing losses year-on-year and decreasing month-on-month losses. With steady expansion, the 24Q1 company released a total of 923,800 pigs, an increase of 48.52% over the previous year. We maintained the company's 2024/25/26 profit forecast of 1.11/12.8/943 million yuan, and adopted the PB valuation method, referring to the comparable company's average valuation value of 3.72X PB. Considering the steady expansion of the company's production capacity, we gave the company a valuation of 3.9 x PB in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 9.59 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Steady expansion, low pig prices dragged down 2024Q1 profits
The company achieved revenue of 1.43 billion yuan in 24Q1, an increase of 17% over the previous year, in line with our previous expectations of 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, or driven by the increase in the number of pigs released by the company. In 24Q1, the company achieved net profit of -255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase in losses and a month-on-month loss; better than our previous expectations of -3.5 to -278 million yuan, or the improvement in the company's breeding costs was better than expected. It is estimated that the full cost of breeding 24Q1 fat pigs may be between 18.3 and 18.8 yuan/kg, with a certain improvement over 23Q4 and 23Q1. The 24Q1 company released a total of 923,800 pigs, an increase of 48.52% over the previous year; a total of 171 million tons of meat was slaughtered, an increase of 24% over the previous year. The profits of the company's breeding and slaughter sector may be under slight pressure due to low pig prices.
The company's ability to breed sows is relatively generous, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. The company can breed sows well, which may support the orderly expansion of the company's production capacity in the future. As of the end of 2023, the company kept 209,900 sows, an increase of about 53,900 heads compared to 156,000 at the end of 2022; the company's sow farm had 284,000 heads, and there may still be room for improvement in production capacity.
The company is relatively well-funded and still has 979 million yuan in monetary capital as of the end of 2024Q1. In the actual business process, measures such as improving breeds and replacing American pigs with high-breeding pigs are also being promoted. Improving quality and efficiency is progressing steadily, and there is still plenty of room for improvement in breeding costs.
The target price is 9.59 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating
We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2024/25/26 at $11.1/12.8/943 million. Using the PB valuation method, we expect the BVPS for 2024/25/26 to be 2.46/3.48/4.22 yuan, respectively. Referring to the average valuation value of a comparable company of 3.72X PB, considering the company's relatively abundant capital and orderly expansion of production capacity, the company was given a valuation of 3.9 PB in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 9.59 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Pig production capacity recovery is less than expected, risk of African swine fever epidemic, channel development results falling short of expectations, risk of pig price fluctuations, etc.