投资收益承压拖累1Q 业绩，中信证券长股投利润贡献稳定。在投资管理业务方面，1Q24 公司投资收益-0.4 亿元/yoy-115%/qoq-110%，主因权益市场波动下公司上市股权项目估值减少。在长股投方面，截至24/2/27，公司对中信证券持股比例达到8.94%（其中A 股6.28%、H 股2.66%）；1Q24 公司实现长股投收益4.3 亿元/yoy-8.1%/净利润占比91.2%。Event: On April 29, Yuexiu Capital released its 2024 quarterly report. 1Q24 achieved net profit of 0.47 billion/yoy -34%, 1Q24 achieved revenue of 3.03 billion/yoy -22%; weighted average ROE (unannualized) was 1.62% /yoy-0.98pct.
Looking at revenue splitting, leasing, AMC, and futures businesses are all under pressure, and the new energy business has achieved high growth.
The company's 1Q24 main business revenue (AMC disposal income and new energy revenue), interest income (mainly financial lease interest income and interest income on non-performing assets), handling fees and commission income (mainly income from financial leases and fund management fees), and other business income (mainly futures business revenue) were 3.2, 1.09, 0.12, 1.5 billion yuan, respectively, +50.2%, -34.1%, and -31.2%, accounting for 10.4%, 36.0%, 4.0%, and 49.5, 49.5, respectively %
Investment income pressure dragged down 1Q results, and CITIC Securities's stock investment profits contributed steadily. In terms of investment management business, 1Q24's investment income -0.04 billion yuan/yoy -115% /qoq -110% was mainly due to the decline in the valuation of the company's listed equity projects due to equity market fluctuations. In terms of long-term stock investment, as of 24/2/27, the company's shareholding ratio in CITIC Securities reached 8.94% (including 6.28% of A shares and 2.66% of H shares); 1Q24 achieved 0.43 billion yuan/yoy -8.1% /net profit of 91.2%.
The company is actively deepening the green transformation, and the new energy business is expected to expand quarterly. Since 23, the company has deepened its green transformation and continued to develop its new energy business. By the end of 23, the company's distributed photovoltaic installed capacity reached 4.25 GW; considering that photovoltaic power generation has seasonal factors (1Q sunshine time, low electricity revenue), the company's new energy business is expected to release profits every quarter.
A repurchase plan announcement was issued, demonstrating the company's confidence in long-term development. 4/29 The company announced its 2024 share repurchase plan. It plans to use 0.1-0.2 billion yuan of its own capital to repurchase some of the company's shares through centralized bidding in the secondary market, with a repurchase price of no more than 6.96 yuan/share. Based on the upper limit of the repurchase price, the number of shares repurchased is 0.014-0.029 billion shares, accounting for 0.29%-0.57% of the company's current total share capital.
This repurchase is based on the company's firm confidence in future development and recognition of stock value, and helps enhance investors' confidence in the company's long-term development.
Investment analysis opinion: Give a “recommended” rating. The net profit of 24-26E Yuexiu Capital is estimated to be 2.24 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, or -7%, +4%, and +5% compared to the same period last year. The current closing price corresponds to 24-26E dynamic PB of 0.98x, 0.93x, 0.89x.
Risk warning: increasing downward pressure on the economy; subsidiary operations falling short of expectations; risk of policy changes.