SHANDONG HI-SPEED(600350):1Q24 RESULTS MISS; TOLL REVENUE UNDER SHORTTERM PRESSURE
SHANDONG HI-SPEED(600350):1Q24 RESULTS MISS; TOLL REVENUE UNDER SHORTTERM PRESSURE
1Q24 results miss our expectations
24 年第一季度的業績未達到我們的預期
Shandong Hi-speed announced its 1Q24 results: Revenue came in at Rmb4.53bn. After being adjusted for the consolidation of Information Group, the company's revenue declined by 11.9% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb769mn. Adjusted attributable net profit fell 6.7% YoY, missing our expectation, due to lower revenue from the toll road business.
山東高速公佈了其24年第一季度業績：收入爲45.3億元人民幣。經信息集團合併調整後，該公司的收入同比下降11.9％。歸屬於股東的淨利潤爲人民幣7.69億元。由於收費公路業務收入減少，調整後的應占淨利潤同比下降6.7％，未達到我們的預期。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Toll revenue dropped YoY; investment business remained sound.
通行費收入同比下降；投資業務保持穩健。
Toll roads and bridges: Toll revenue fell 12.2% YoY to Rmb2.26bn.
收費公路和橋樑：通行費收入同比下降12.2％，至人民幣22.6億元。
Specifically, revenue from the Jiqing expressway declined by 14.4% YoY, due to more rainy and snowy days, nine toll-free days for small passenger vehicles (PVs) during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday (February 10-17), and traffic diversion.
具體而言，濟青高速公路收入同比下降14.4％，這是由於雨天和雪天增加，農曆新年（CNY）假期（2月10日至17日）期間小型乘用車（PV）的九天免費通行以及交通改道。
Investment and operation: Investment income increased by 6.2% YoY to Rmb324mn.
投資和運營：投資收入同比增長6.2％，達到人民幣3.24億元。
Rail Transportation Group: Revenue fell 14.2% YoY to Rmb965mn. Net profit declined by 22.7% YoY to Rmb66mn.
軌道交通集團：收入同比下降14.2％，至人民幣9.65億元。淨利潤同比下降22.7％，至人民幣6600萬元。
Retrofitting and expansion projects as well as changes in road networks weighed on earnings in the short term; upbeat on the growth potential of the toll road business in the medium and long term.
改造和擴建項目以及道路網絡的變化在短期內打壓了收益；對收費公路業務的中長期增長潛力持樂觀態度。
Toll revenue declined in the short term, as the changes in road networks weighed on some road assets at the company. In addition, we think ongoing retrofitting and expansion projects for the Jingtai expressway and the Jihe expressway will, to some degree, erode traffic.
由於道路網絡的變化打壓了該公司的部分道路資產，通行費收入在短期內有所下降。此外，我們認爲，正在進行的景泰高速公路和濟河高速公路的改造和擴建項目將在某種程度上侵蝕交通。
That said, we think retrofitting and expansion projects will boost the firm's earnings growth in the medium and long term, given increased traffic following the completion of such projects for the Jiqing expressway and the Jingtai expressway as well as new toll collection standards. The firm has announced that the Jihe expressway will likely start operation by end-2024.
儘管如此，我們認爲改造和擴建項目將在中長期內促進公司的收益增長，因爲濟青高速公路和景泰高速公路的此類項目完工後交通量增加，以及新的收費標準。該公司宣佈，濟河高速公路可能會在2024年底之前開始運營。
Stable dividend payment policy bodes well for shareholder returns. The firm has announced that dividend payout ratios for 2020-2024 will be at least 60%. Its dividend per share did not decline even if earnings came under pressure due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020- 2022. We think its stable dividend payment policy bodes well for shareholder returns.
穩定的股息支付政策對股東的回報是個好兆頭。該公司宣佈，2020-2024年的股息支付率將至少爲60％。即使由於2020-2022年 COVID-19 疫情的影響，收益承壓，其每股股息也沒有下降。我們認爲其穩定的股息支付政策對股東的回報是個好兆頭。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We cut our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 3.6% and 4.0% to Rmb3.48bn and Rmb3.82bn, to reflect lower-than-expected toll revenue. The stock is trading at 12.4x 2024e and 11.3x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of Rmb10.01. Our TP implies 13.9x 2024e and 12.7x 2025e P/E, offering 12.2% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預期下調了3.6％和4.0％，至34.8億元人民幣和38.2億元人民幣，以反映通行費收入低於預期。該股的市盈率爲2024年的12.4倍，2025年市盈率爲11.3倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲10.01元人民幣。我們的目標股價意味着2024年市盈率爲13.9倍，2025年市盈率爲12.7倍，上漲幅度爲12.2％。
Risks
風險
Progress in retrofitting and expansion projects and/or economic growth disappoints.
改造和擴建項目的進展和/或經濟增長令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。