Guangdong Electric Power A released its report for the first quarter of 2024. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 12.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 126 million yuan, an increase of 42.8%; and basic earnings per share were 0.024 yuan, an increase of 42.8% over the previous year. Overall performance was in line with expectations.
The cost of growing electricity has declined, hedging the risk of electricity prices, and thermal power profits continue to improve. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved a power generation capacity of 28.202 billion kilowatt-hours, +7.20% year-on-year. The increase in electricity production partially hedged the impact of falling electricity prices in Guangdong on revenue. Among them, coal/gas power generation capacity was 21,418/4.667 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 0.86%/32.02% over the previous year. Currently, the company is building 8 million kilowatts of coal power, which is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026; the gas and power projects under construction are about 5.5 million kilowatts, which are expected to be put into operation one after another from 2024 to 2025, and there is still plenty of room for growth in thermal power installations and electricity. Benefiting from the continuous decline in coal prices, the company's fuel costs continued to decline. 24Q1's fuel cost for power generation was 8.592 billion yuan, down 8.84% from the previous year. Considering that the company is a coastal power plant in Guangdong, Changxie coal coverage is limited, coal prices continued to drop month-on-month in the second quarter of 2024, and thermal power profitability continued to improve.
New energy sources continue to expand and have growth potential. Through self-construction and acquisition, 2024Q1 added 1.776,600 kilowatts of installed capacity, including 600,000 kilowatts of wind power and 24,600 kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's wind power/photovoltaic power generation capacity was 1,481/418 million kilowatt-hours, up 11.94%/2100% year on year; the wind power and photovoltaic business generation revenue increased 196 million yuan year on year. Currently, about 2.44 million kilowatts of new energy projects are under construction, and the installed capacity of new energy continues to expand.
Investment advice: The company's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 587/653/71.7 billion yuan, up -1.8%/11.4%/9.8% year-on-year; net profit to mother is 19.45/29.81/36.17 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 2024-2026 EPS of 0.37/0.57/0.69 yuan, and the corresponding 2024-2026 PE is 14.6/9.5/7.8, respectively. The company still has resource advantages and profit recovery flexibility, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: power supply installation speed falls short of expectations; risk of electricity price reduction; price increase of upstream raw materials.