受美国大客户新旧产品迭代延期的影响，公司2023 年下半年内窥镜镜体发货短期需求有所下降；加之客户为新一代系统上市提前备货，造成高基数和库存增加，因此公司2023 年下半年及2024Q1 业绩有所承压。随着客户新系统的全面上市和销售提速，库存影响减弱，公司产品销售有望逐步恢复。同时公司与客户合作的新型宫腔镜预计于2024 年6 月推向市场；并积极开发膀胱镜、小儿腹腔镜等新镜种，有望持续贡献收入增量。Incidents:
The company publishes its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 471 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.31%; net profit to mother was 146 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.19%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 136 million yuan, a decrease of 19.20% year-on-year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 118 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.74%; net profit to mother was 38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.68%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.36 million yuan, a decrease of 21.40% year-on-year. The results are in line with market expectations.
The impact of downstream inventory removal and high base figures puts pressure on short-term performance
Affected by the iteration delays of new and old products from major US customers, the company's short-term demand for endoscopic lens delivery declined in the second half of 2023; in addition, customers prepared goods in advance for the launch of next-generation systems, resulting in a high base and increased inventory, so the company's performance in the second half of 2023 and 2024Q1 was under pressure. With the full launch of the customer's new system and the acceleration of sales, the impact on inventory weakens, and the company's product sales are expected to gradually resume. At the same time, the new hysteroscopes that the company cooperates with customers are expected to be launched on the market in June 2024; it is also actively developing new types of lenses such as cystoscopy and pediatric laparoscopy, which is expected to continue to contribute to revenue growth.
Domestic market performance is outstanding, and we look forward to the release of complete machines from our own brands
The company actively explores the domestic market, improves the marketing network system, and enhances brand influence. Domestic revenue in 2023 was 141 million yuan, up 26.46% year on year; of these, revenue from own-brand products was 64.16 million yuan, up 91.27% year on year, accounting for 13.70% of total revenue. As the company's second-generation complete systems began to be registered at the end of 2023, clinical competitiveness was improved; arthroscopy, 3D laparoscopy, and thoracoscopy continued to be enriched, laying the foundation for multi-department development. With the company's advantages in optical technology such as 4K, 3D, and defogging, as well as Sinopharm Xinguang's channel advantages, it can be expected that domestic machines will be released in the future.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering changes in the order pace of downstream customers, we expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 623/7.99/978 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 32.48%/28.13%/22.44%, and net profit to mother of 219/2.93/363 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding growth rates are 50.55%/33.37%/24.19%, and the 3-year CAGR is 35.61%, corresponding PE is 25/19/15 times, respectively. Since the company has mastered the core technology of fluorescent hard mirror manufacturing, there is plenty of room for growth in the downstream machine business. Referring to comparable company estimates, we gave the company 30 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 54.11 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of major customer dependency; risk of private brand promotion falling short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
