SPD Bank (600000): Reverse the decline and focus on the progress of transformation

2023 业绩符合我们预期、1Q24 业绩超预期

浦发银行发布2023 年报与1Q24 季报，公司2023 年营收/归母净利润分别同比降低8.1%、28.3%，4Q23 单季营收/归母净利润分别同比降低9.6%、18.6%，业绩符合我们的预期。1Q24 单季营收同比降低5.7%、归母净利润同比增长10.0%，剔除去年同期出售上投摩根股权的一次性影响后，1Q24 营收同比增长3.4%、扣非后归母净利润同比增长30.6%，业绩超出我们预期，我们认为主要由于信用成本下行驱动。

发展趋势

资产结构改善，1Q24 净息差稳健。2H23 公司净息差为1.48%、环比上半年降低8bp，2023 全年公司净息差同比降低25bp 至1.52%（均为日均余额口径）；我们测算1Q24 期初期末平均NIM 同比持平于4Q23。其中，过去两个季度公司负债能力逐步提升，1Q24 付息负债成本率相较3Q23 累计降低4bp 至2.22%。规模增长方面扩表保持稳健，4Q23/1Q24 总资产分别环比增长2.3%/0.5%，贷款分别环比增长2.0%/3.4%，贷款占总资产的比例相较3Q23 提升1.4pct 至57.3%。公司2023 年/1Q24 净利息收入分别同比降低11.4%、6.4%，降幅有所收窄。

2023、1Q24 非息收入分别同比增长0.1%、降低4.6%。公司2023、4Q23、1Q24 净手续费收入分别同比降低14.8%/25.8%/10.9%，我们认为主要受到资本市场疲软、保险报行合一整改、居民消费不及预期等因素影响。其他非息收入2023、4Q23 分别同比增长16.3%、24.3%，债市良好表现驱动投资收益与公允价值变动提升；1Q24 其他非息微降0.1%，主要由于去年同期处置上投摩根股权导致基数较高。

不良率、不良净生成率双降。截至1Q24 末，公司贷款不良率为1.45%，相较3Q23 末累计降低7bp；关注类贷款占比持平于2.35%。截至2023 年年末，贷款逾期率和逾期90 天以上贷款占比为2.02%、1.25%，分别较1H23末压降5bp、11bp。新增不良方面，2023 年公司不良贷款净生成率同比降低17bp 至1.15%，我们测算1Q24 单季不良净生成率为0.76%。风险抵补能力方面，1Q24 末公司拨备覆盖率为172.8%，相较3Q23 消费降低4.2pct。

分红率提升至30%。公司计划2023 年每10 股派息3.21 元，分红率由20.50%提升至30.05%。按照最新收盘价测算，公司动态股息率提升至4.2%。

盈利预测与估值

维持盈利预测和跑赢行业评级。当前股价对应0.4x/0.3x 2024E/ 2025E P/B，考虑到公司信用成本压力或有缓释、分红率提高提升股息回报，我们上调目标价20%至9.2 元，对应0.4x/0.4x 2024E/2025E P/B、19.5%上行空间。

风险

宏观经济复苏不及预期，风险管理压力超出市场预期。

2023 results met our expectations and 1Q24 results exceeded expectations

SPD Bank released its 2023 annual report and 1Q24 quarterly report. The company's 2023 revenue/net profit decreased by 8.1% and 28.3% year on year, respectively, and 4Q23 single quarter revenue/net profit decreased by 9.6% and 18.6% year on year, respectively. The results were in line with our expectations. 1Q24's single-quarter revenue decreased 5.7% year over year, and net profit to mother increased 10.0% year over year. After excluding the one-time impact of the sale of shares invested in Morgan during the same period of the year, 1Q24 revenue increased 3.4% year over year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother increased 30.6% year on year. The performance exceeded our expectations. We believe it was mainly driven by declining credit costs.

Development trends

The asset structure improved, and the net interest spread was stable in 1Q24. 2H23's net interest spread was 1.48%, down 8 bps from the first half of the month, and the company's net interest spread for the full year of 2023 decreased by 25 bps to 1.52% year on year (all average daily balance); we estimate that the average NIM at the beginning of the 1Q24 period remained the same as 4Q23 year over year. Among them, the company's debt capacity gradually increased in the past two quarters, and the 1Q24 interest-paying debt cost ratio decreased by 4 bps to 2.22% compared to 3Q23. In terms of scale growth, the expansion schedule remained steady. Total assets in 4Q23/1Q24 increased 2.3%/0.5%, respectively, and loans increased 2.0%/3.4% month-on-month, respectively. The ratio of loans to total assets increased by 1.4 pct to 57.3% compared to 3Q23. The company's 2023/1Q24 net interest income decreased by 11.4% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline narrowed somewhat.

Non-interest revenue for 2023 and 1Q24 increased 0.1% year-on-year and decreased 4.6%, respectively. The company's net handling fee revenue for 2023, 4Q23, and 1Q24 decreased by 14.8%/25.8%/10.9%, respectively. We believe it was mainly affected by factors such as weak capital markets, integrated insurance reporting and restructuring, and consumer spending falling short of expectations. Other non-interest income increased 16.3% and 24.3% year-on-year in 2023 and 4Q23, respectively. The good performance of the bond market drove an increase in investment income and fair value changes; in 1Q24, other non-interest income fell slightly by 0.1%, mainly due to the disposition of shares invested in Morgan in the same period last year.

Defect rate and bad net generation rate both decreased. As of the end of 1Q24, the company's loan non-performing ratio was 1.45%, a cumulative decrease of 7 bps compared to the end of 3Q23; the share of concerned loans remained flat at 2.35%. As of the end of 2023, the loan overdue rate and the proportion of loans overdue for 90 days or more was 2.02% and 1.25%, down 5bp and 11bp respectively from the end of 1h23. In terms of new non-performing loans, the company's net generation rate of non-performing loans decreased by 17 bps to 1.15% year-on-year in 2023. We estimate that the net bad generation rate for 1Q24 was 0.76% in a single quarter. In terms of risk offsetting capacity, the company's provision coverage rate at the end of 1Q24 was 172.8%, which is 4.2pct lower than 3Q23 consumption.

The dividend rate was increased to 30%. The company plans to pay a dividend of 3.21 yuan for every 10 shares in 2023, increasing the dividend rate from 20.50% to 30.05%. Based on the latest closing price estimates, the company's dynamic dividend ratio increased to 4.2%.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Maintain profit forecasts and outperform industry ratings. The current stock price corresponds to 0.4x/0.3x 2024E/ 2025E P/B. Considering that the company's credit cost pressure may be mitigated and dividend rate increases to increase dividend returns, we raised the target price by 20% to 9.2 yuan, which corresponds to 0.4x/0.4x 2024E/2025E P/B, with 19.5% upward space.

risks

The macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations, and risk management pressure exceeded market expectations.

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浦发银行(600000)：扭转颓势 关注转型进度

SPD Bank (600000): Reverse the decline and focus on the progress of transformation

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

浦发银行(600000)：扭转颓势关注转型进度