Global macroscopic

• The three major US stock indices weakened slightly before the market on Tuesday

• Goldman Sachs: US inflation is still falling, the election is not critical to the Federal Reserve, and interest rate hikes are very unlikely

The resurgence of US inflation has seriously dampened expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates recently. As of press release, the CME Fed observation tool shows that the market will not face the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the coming year until September of this year. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the general election may have a certain impact on the Fed's policy, but the Fed's policy still mainly depends on economic indicators. Goldman Sachs expects the next inflation data to be more moderate, so it maintains the forecast of interest rate cuts in July and November.

• The IPO market is picking up! Damo: 15 tech companies are expected to go public this year, and there are still “good signs” next year

Morgan Stanley believes that the IPO market is already picking up momentum. The bank notes that there are still 10 to 15 technology companies that may go public before the end of 2024. Furthermore, the recent initial public offering was highly priced and traded very well, which bodes “well” for 2025.

• The “most pigeonest economist” warned: interest rates will not be cut this year, but interest rates may be raised!

Macquarie economists' predictions for 2024 interest rates have changed significantly. The bank said that the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year is very small, almost zero, but a rate hike is possible.

• Behind the repeated record highs of gold prices: central banks and individual investors are buying, and quarterly demand is the strongest since 2016

According to the “Global Gold Demand Trend Report” for the first quarter of 2024 released by the World Gold Council, total demand for gold, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, increased 3% year-on-year to 1,238 tons during the quarter, “the strongest quarter since 2016.” This historic surge was mainly due to continued purchases by central banks in emerging markets and increased investment from individual investors, even though Western investors remained wait-and-see.

Hot news

• The pre-market trend of Star Technology stocks diverged

• Eli Lilly's US stocks rose in a straight line by nearly 7% before the market, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidelines

$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$Revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was US$8.768 billion, up 26% year on year; adjusted net profit was US$2,335 million, up 60% year over year. Eli Lilly raised its revenue forecast for the full year, which is expected to reach 42.4 to 43.6 billion US dollars, compared to the previous forecast of 404 to 41.6 billion US dollars. As of press time, Lilly is up nearly 7% in the premarket.

• Tesla begins a new round of layoffs: firing two executives and cutting about 500 people in the supercharging department

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Following the departure of two US executives, Musk plans to further lay off employees. According to reports, the Tesla supercharging station team will lay off about 500 employees. As of press time, Tesla was down nearly 2% in the premarket.

• MicroStrategy fell nearly 7% in the premarket, and revenue for the first fiscal quarter fell short of expectations

$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$It fell nearly 7% before the market, with revenue of US$115.2 million; analysts expected US$123.7 million; digital assets of US$5.07 billion in the first fiscal quarter, compared with US$2.00 billion in the same period last year; loss of US$3.09 per share in the first fiscal quarter, and earnings per share of US$31.79 for the same period last year.

• Logitech rose more than 10% before the market, and Q4 sales resumed growth for the first time after two and a half years

$Logitech International (LOGI.US)$It rose more than 10% before the market. The company previously announced results for the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. Sales were US$1.01 billion, up 5% year on year, ending a two-and-a-half-year decline in sales after the boom driven by working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, and also exceeded market expectations of US$950 million; earnings per share were US$1.07, a sharp increase of 312% year over year, far exceeding market expectations of US$0.44; net profit of US$168 million, with market expectations of approximately US$77 million.

• PayPal rose more than 7% in the premarket, and first-quarter results exceeded expectations

$PayPal (PYPL.US)$According to the released financial data, net revenue for the first quarter was 7.699 billion US dollars, up 9% year on year; net profit was 888 million yuan, up 12% year on year, all exceeding market expectations. As of press time, the company was up more than 7% in the premarket.

• NXP rose more than 3% before the market, and the median value of Q2 revenue and adjusted earnings per share guidance was higher than market expectations

$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$US stocks rose more than 3% before the market, and the company's revenue for the first fiscal quarter was US$3.13 billion, in line with analysts' expectations; adjusted earnings per share were US$3.24, and analysts' expectations were US$3.18. The company expects adjusted earnings per share for the second fiscal quarter to be $3.00-3.41; analysts expect $3.12 billion; revenue of $3.03 billion to $3.23 billion; and analysts expect $3.11 billion.

Focus on China Securities

• The rise and fall of popular Chinese securities was mixed before the market

• Lucky Coffee: Total net revenue of 6.278.1 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a total number of 18,590 stores

$Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US)$According to the financial report for the first quarter of 2024, Lucky Coffee's total net revenue for the first quarter was 6.278.1 billion yuan, up 41.5% year on year; 2,342 new stores were opened, with a total number of 18,590 stores at the end of the reporting period, including 12,199 self-operated stores and 6,391 joint stores; self-operated store revenue was 4,579.6 billion yuan, up 45.8% year on year; the average number of monthly trading customers was about 5.991 million, up 103.2% year on year.

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Editor/Somer