The performance was in line with expectations, and the rating was “increased”. The EPS forecast for 2024-2025 was 4.88/5.55 yuan, respectively, and the EPS estimate for 2026 was 6.33 yuan; considering the company's reforms and efficiency improvements, the 2024 19x PE valuation was given, and the target price was raised to 92.72 yuan (original value of 88.59 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Performance summary: In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 71,436 billion yuan/yoy +13.4%, net profit of 2,214 billion yuan/yoy +30.2%, net profit of 2,156 billion yuan/yoy +24.8%; 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 25.630 billion yuan/yoy +4.4%, net profit of 802 million yuan/yoy +12.0%, net profit of non-return to mother of 835 million yuan/yoy +13.8%. The performance was in line with expectations. Excluding the impact of credit impairment losses, the net profit of 2024Q1 was 865 million yuan/yoy +20.8%.
Benefit from rising gold prices, increased gross margin, and cost ratio optimization. The profit side of 2024Q1 maintained double-digit growth under the high base during the same period, mainly benefiting from rising gold prices and inventory appreciation. 2024Q1 gold prices increased by about 16% year on year. 2024Q1 The company's gross profit margin for a single quarter was 8.37% /+0.35pct, net profit margin 3.13% /+0.21pct; the period expense ratio was 2.01%/-0.29pct, and the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio changed year-on-year by -0.17pct/-0.11pct/+0.01pct/-0.02pct to 1.25%/0.49%/0.04%/0.23%, respectively.
State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing, and performance flexibility can be expected. The company is further promoting the comprehensive reform of the Double Hundred Action Plan, actively exploring and implementing a professional manager system, fully stimulating the enthusiasm and initiative of management members, and further stimulating the momentum for enterprise growth. Currently, provincial representatives in some regions have completed funding through Hainan Jin Yixiao, and the interests of all parties are deeply bound, and the release of flexible performance is worth looking forward to.
Risk warning: State-owned enterprise reforms fall short of expectations, fluctuations in gold prices, etc.