The main business boom has declined sharply, and COC industrialization may be implemented to maintain the “buy” rating company's revenue of 537 million yuan in 2023, -24.73% year over year; net profit to mother was 23.9204 million yuan, -80.10% year over year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 103 million yuan, -28.13% year over year; realized net profit of 11.91 million yuan, -81.01% year over year; realized net profit without deduction of 115,300 yuan, -97.63% year on year. The company's main business declined cyclically, and performance was under pressure. Considering the decline in the company's main business situation exceeding expectations and the progress of COC construction falling short of expectations, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2024 and 2025, and added a profit forecast for 2026.
The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 0.26, 1.21 (previous values 1.63, 4.82), and 191 million yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.30, 1.37 (previous values 1.86, 5.48), and 2.17 yuan/share, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 157.4, 34.2, and 21.6 times. Although the company's operations are under great pressure in the short term, we are still optimistic about the company's imminent breakthrough in the industrialization of new COC materials and the broad future prospects of this material, and maintain a “buy” rating.
The decline in polyether amine sentiment combined with Q1 maintenance affected performance. The dividend return was highlighted. The sales volume of the company's main products, aliphatic amine and optical materials in 2023 was 20,675 and 5,347 tons, respectively, +15.2% and +25.7%, respectively; the average prices were 17,017 and 34,441 yuan/ton, respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -37.8% and -33.7%, respectively.
2024Q1 sold 3,744 and 1,449 tons of fatty amines and optical materials, respectively; the average prices were 16,106 and 29,429 yuan/ton, respectively; the average prices were 16,106 and 29,429 yuan/ton, respectively, -8.3% and -27.2%. Affected by the 2024Q1 maintenance of the company's polyether amine plant in the past month, sales declined sharply. Despite pressure on performance, the company still values shareholder returns. The company paid 17.59 million yuan in cash at the end of 2023, and the dividend payment rate reached 73.53%. The company's average dividend payment rate in the past three years was 42.04%, while the historical average dividend payment rate since listing was 54.62%, highlighting the company's steady and steady style.
The COC pilot sample verification went smoothly. The Qianjiang project is about to be tested and put into operation. According to the company's announcement, the company has been committed to the research and development of COC monomers and polymers in recent years. The company has obtained relevant patents, and the pilot samples have been verified by customers in different downstream fields. The main indicators have all met customer requirements. The kiloton production line will be tested and put into operation in 2024, and the company has maintained close communication with downstream customers. Furthermore, the company's Qianjiang project is being actively promoted, and it is expected that projects will be completed one after another by the end of 2024.
Risk warning: Project progress fell short of expectations, product prices fell sharply, and downstream demand fell short of expectations.