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千禾味业(603027):业绩符合预期 经营势能释放

Qianhe Flavors (603027): Performance is in line with expectations, operating potential is unleashed

國泰君安 ·  Apr 30

Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the company's 2024 EPS of 0.64 yuan, +25% year over year. Considering the gradual improvement in the company's operating efficiency, EPS was raised to 0.76 yuan in 2025, +18% compared to the same period (previous value was 0.75 yuan), and the 2026 EPS was given 0.91 yuan, +20% compared to the same period, and maintain the target price of 27.57 yuan.

The performance was in line with expectations, and products/channels blossomed more. Revenue/net profit for 23 years was 32/53 billion yuan, +32/ 54% year-on-year, 23Q4 revenue/net profit 88/140 million yuan, year-on-year -0.8/ -8.5%, 24Q1 revenue/net profit 9/160 million yuan, +9.3/ 6.7% year on year. Judging from the annual report and quarterly report situation, the company as a whole showed a trend of growing products/channels. On the one hand, zero addition led the release of new oyster sauce/cooking wine products, and on the other hand, a significant surge in the number of distributors drove the growth of other businesses. 23/ There was a net increase of 1020/106 dealers in 24Q1, respectively.

2024Q1 operational efficiency increases hedge against pressure on a high net interest rate base. Net interest rate was +2.4 pct year over year, due to increased consumer health awareness and increased gross sales margin; 24Q1 net interest rate -0.4 pct. Against the backdrop of the 23Q1 base being too high, the company stabilized the 2024Q1 net interest rate level through improved operating efficiency.

Long-term: Continuously make up for shortcomings and make great strides towards a platform-based condiment enterprise. The company uses zero-additive products as a starting point, while actively expanding other condiments. The continuous enrichment of SKU complements channel expansion. We judge that the company's product/channel/brand barriers will gradually increase in the future, thereby continuing to squeeze competitors and guarantee long-term excess profits.

Risk warning: weak economic growth; zero addition competition has increased significantly; food safety risks, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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