The mysterious private equity that has only been stationed at the top ten shareholders of Kweichow Moutai “ran away” all year round?

1

Has the mysterious 10 billion private equity actually gone away?

Maotai's quarterly report for this year has come out, and changes in the latest list of the top ten shareholders have also surfaced. The mysterious private equity Ruifeng Huibang and Jinhui Rongsheng, which previously sparked a buzz in the market, have both disappeared from the list of the top ten shareholders in circulation.

Judging from Maotai's list of the top ten tradable stocks in the first quarter of 2024, state-owned shareholders, foreign-funded institutions, and major central financial institutions related to Kweichow Moutai still rank among them, and a large number of index funds have begun to emerge.

For example, Huaxia Fund Shanghai Securities 50 ETF, Huatai Berry Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, and E-Fangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF launched, the number of Maotai shares held increased by 2,811,700 shares, 2.146,400 shares, and 2.9864 million shares respectively in the previous quarter

Instead, two mysterious private equity firms that have held Maotai for 6 consecutive years disappeared in the first quarter of this year.

(The content of this article is a list of objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice)

As early as Maotai announced its 2023 annual report, the market discovered that Jinhui Rongsheng and Ruifeng Huibang reduced their Maotai holdings by 1,114,300 shares and 2.182 million shares respectively in the fourth quarter of last year.

This is the first time since the two private equity firms have taken heavy positions in Kweichow Moutai since 2018, to reduce their positions!

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the mood of the entire market was shrouded in dark clouds. Ruifeng Huibang had 6.7 billion dollars as soon as it took action, entering the list of Maotai's top ten shareholders in one fell swoop. Jinhui Rongsheng, on the other hand, became the top ten shareholders of Kweichow Moutai in the second quarter of 2019. One move was 6.395 billion yuan.

Even though their holdings were reduced for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2023, the market value of the two private equity firm's holdings in Kweichow Moutai was still at the level of 10 billion dollars.

At a time when Kweichow Moutai's stock price was low, it was 6 billion dollars, and they dared to use 10 billion dollars to bet only on one stock. These two private equity firms must have extraordinary courage.

The market has always wanted to unravel the mystery of such bold and bold private equity institutions. However, there is very little effective information, and there is nothing to be found when pieced together. Instead, it has always been circulating or linked to Duan Yongping.

However, the April 3 article on ETF Evolution, “Not a single share has been sold! “Duan Yongping's Latest Response” also mentioned that Duan Yongping's response to market speculation was “not sold”

In 2018, when the stock market was sluggish, they were able to buy Kweichow Moutai in a big way. After that, they continued to increase their positions “in small steps” for the next 6 years, and eventually used 10 billion dollars to bet one ticket alone. Now they have gone so resolutely. Everyone wants to know if Kweichow Moutai's logic has changed?

2

Has Maotai changed? or have the times changed?

Meanwhile, the dust has finally settled on Kweichow Moutai's “change of command”.

On April 29, Kweichow Moutai issued an announcement stating that according to relevant documents of the Guizhou Provincial People's Government, Zhang Deqin was recommended as the director and chairman of Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., and that Ding Xiongjun no longer serve as chairman and director of the company.

This is the fourth time in 6 years since May 2018 that Kweichow Moutai has changed its head.

While Ding Xiongjun was in charge of Maotai for more than 2 years, he took the dual approach of direct marketing of Maotai with his left hand, rejuvenation of his right hand, and product promotion. Maotai's performance achieved a breakthrough of 100 billion dollars, and net profit increased nearly 20% for two consecutive years.

However, concerns about downgrading consumption and young people not drinking liquor are still like Damocles, at the top of Kweichow Moutai.

On April 8, the liquor sector opened and crashed. The China Securities Liquor Index fell 4.13% throughout the day, and the leading Kweichow Moutai fell by 2.82% throughout the day. This is a ghost story caused by a sharp drop in prices.

On April 12, at a liquor conference, Ding Xiongjun said, “This is not a cyclical issue, but an issue of the times,” when talking about the liquor market facing a continuous decline in production capacity and production, slowing overall terminal sales, and insufficient consumer confidence in the industry.

I don't know for some reason. When I see the information that 10 billion private equity firm has reduced its holdings in Kweichow Moutai for two consecutive quarters, I have a sense of unease in my heart that I don't know where it came from. Even Zhong Xuegao, who was once a hit and was on the cusp of public opinion, seemed to have reached the end of an era.

After Lin Sheng, the founder of Zhong Xuegao, was “limited in height,” he needed to take a one-night green train to Beijing. When it came to paying off his debt, he finally chose to sell sweet potatoes instead of expensive ice cream.

In February of this year, the former CEO of JD commented, “This should be the end of an era and the beginning of an era. Cycles and eras are two completely different characteristics.”

You know the times are changing at an accelerated pace, but watching with your own eyes what you once believed unquestionably collapse little by little in front of you will still be deeply shocked. You might even be a little dissatisfied. You've clearly seen the flourishing development of a new era with your own eyes, and everything is thriving.

But when it's your turn, everyone tells you that times have changed. This is the law of economic development, even if there is no desire to do so.

3

Real estate sector pullback

On the last trading day before the May 1st holiday, A-shares contracted slightly. By the close, the Shanghai Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Index fell 0.90%, and the GEM Index fell 1.55%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1030.6 billion yuan, down 1805 billion yuan from the previous day, but the net sales of northbound capital was 8.616 billion yuan.

In terms of ETFs, real estate-themed ETFs had the highest pullback. Huabao Fund Real Estate ETF, Yinhua Fund Real Estate ETF, and Southern Fund Real Estate ETF fell by 3.92%, 3.58%, and 3.35%, respectively.

The market believes that the changes in real estate stocks since last Friday may be due to the fact that the expected policy will further emphasize the easing of the property market.

China Real Estate Network published an article after the market yesterday saying that the real estate policy may change in direction, and that more favorable policies may be introduced around the property market to remove inventory, such as further liberalizing purchase restrictions, liberalizing price restrictions, and reducing transaction costs such as deeds.

The April political conference emphasized the need to combine the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market and the people's new expectations for high-quality housing, coordinate research on policies and measures to absorb the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing, and urgently construct a new model of real estate development to promote high-quality real estate development.

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