能源&房建类订单增速较快，上海市外拓展加快公司24Q1 新中标订单226.6 亿，同比+7.15%，施工业务中轨道交通、市政工程、能源工程、道路工程、房建分别新中标订单11.3、87.2、19.7、20.7、29.3 亿元，同比-54.19%、+10.14%、+96.24%、+22.10%、+103.57%，能源与房建类订单延续较快增长。分区域来看，上海市内、市外新中标98.9、82.9 亿元，同比+8.80%、+11.38%，订单保持高质量增长。Revenue and profit are growing steadily, and the company is developing steadily
The 24Q1 company achieved revenue of 14.13 billion yuan, +5.3% year on year, net profit to mother of 404 million, +3.1% year on year, and net profit after deducting non-net profit of 430 million yuan, +10.2% year on year. Of these, non-recurring profit and loss were 18 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44 million yuan. The growth rate of net profit after deducting non-net profit improved faster than gross margin mainly due to revenue. We expect the company's net profit to be 32.4, 35.9, and 3.99 billion in 24-26, corresponding PE of 6.6, 6.0, and 5.4 times, and approved to give the company 9 times PE in 24 years, with a corresponding target price of 9.27 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Accumulate deep high-quality traffic data assets. Data elements help reassess the value. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the National Data Administration issued the “Key Work Points for the Digital Economy 2024”, which proposed 9 implementation measures, focusing on laying out digital infrastructure moderately ahead of schedule, speeding up the construction of a data infrastructure system, and promoting the implementation of “20 Data Rules”. We believe that a large number of high-quality data assets within the tunnel shares are worth paying attention to. The company operates more than 95% of Shanghai's municipal roads, and undertakes the task of operating and maintaining more than 2,300 kilometers of transportation facilities across the country. The first transportation data element product was signed and implemented Data resources are an important breakthrough from the business side to the product side. At the same time, the transportation infrastructure operated by the company is also expected to form relevant supporting support for the implementation of the low-altitude economy. It is recommended to focus on the company's data elements and flexible release under the catalyst of the low-altitude economy.
Energy & housing construction orders grew rapidly. Expansion outside of Shanghai accelerated the company's 24Q1 bid of 22.66 billion yuan, or +7.15%. The construction business won new orders of 11.3, 87.2, 19.7, 20.7, and 2.93 billion yuan for rail transit, municipal engineering, energy engineering, road engineering, and housing construction respectively, compared to -54.19%, +10.14%, +96.24%, +22.10%, +103.57%. Energy and housing construction orders continued to grow rapidly. Looking at the subregion, new bids from within and outside of Shanghai won 98.9 billion yuan and 8.29 billion yuan, +8.80% compared with the same period last year, and orders maintained high quality growth.
Gross margin improved, and expenses increased slightly during the period
The 24Q1 comprehensive gross margin was 12.5%, up 0.57 pct year on year, and 4.99 pct month on month; the cost ratio for the period was 10.35%, up 0.19 pct year on year. Sales, management, R&D, and finance expenses rates were 0.01%, 3.61%, 3.84%, and 2.88%, respectively. The year-on-year changes were +0.01pct, -0.21pct, +1.32pct, and -0.93pct. Under the combined influence, the net interest rate decreased by 0.79 pct to 357 million. 3.26% The net CFO of the 24Q1 company was 3.908 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 664 million yuan. The current payout ratios were 129.18% and 161.77%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +9.44pct and +12.11pct.
Risk warning: Infrastructure investment is weaker than expected, risk of impairment, project progress falls short of expectations, digital business falls short of expectations.
