LONGYUAN POWER(00916.HK):SHORT-TERM PRESSURE ON WIND;EYE ON LONG-TERM GROWTH POTENTIAL
LONGYUAN POWER(00916.HK):SHORT-TERM PRESSURE ON WIND;EYE ON LONG-TERM GROWTH POTENTIAL
Maintain "Buy": Given Longyuan Power's ("LYP", or the "Company") abundant project reserve and long-term growth potential, we maintain our 2024-2026 EPS estimates of RMB0.95/ RMB1.13/ RMB1.28, respectively.
維持 “買入”：鑑於龍源電力（“LYP” 或 “公司”）充足的項目儲備和長期增長潛力，我們維持2024-2026年每股收益分別爲人民幣0.95元/人民幣1.13元/人民幣1.28元的預期。
Our TP is currently HK$7.75, based on 7.5x 2024 PER.
根據2024年的7.5倍市盈率，我們目前的目標價爲7.75港元。
1Q2024 results in line: LYP reported 1Q2024 revenue of RMB9.88 bn, up 0.1% yoy, and shareholders' profit of RMB2.39 bn, up 2.5% yoy (based on the Chinese Accounting Standards).
1Q2024 業績一致：LYP報告的 1Q2024 收入爲人民幣98.8億元，同比增長0.1％，股東利潤爲人民幣23.9億元，同比增長2.5％（根據中國會計準則）。
Growth in 1Q2024 results was primarily driven by an increase in investment income. In 1Q2024, LYP added 562 MW of new capacity, including 26 MW of wind and 536 MW of solar. Generation was 21.2 GWh in 1Q2024, up 8.3% yoy. LYP's gross margin in 1Q2024 was 39.9%, down 0.1 ppts yoy. Net profit during the quarter was RMB2.66 bn, up 1.2% yoy. We think LYP's earnings growth in 1Q2024 was primarily driven by an increase in investment income. During the quarter, investment income was RMB70 mn, representing an increase of RMB140 mn yoy.
1Q2024 業績的增長主要是由投資收入的增加推動的。在 1Q2024 中，LYP 增加了 562 兆瓦的新容量，包括 26 兆瓦的風能和 536 兆瓦的太陽能。1Q2024 的發電量爲 21.2 吉瓦時，同比增長 8.3%。LYP在 1Q2024 中的毛利率爲39.9％，同比下降0.1個百分點。該季度的淨利潤爲人民幣26.6億元，同比增長1.2％。我們認爲，LYP在 1Q2024 中的收益增長主要是由投資收入的增加推動的。在本季度，投資收入爲 RMB70 萬，同比增長 RMB140 萬。
Decline in wind speed and tariffs weighed on short-term results, while long-term growth outlook remains solid. While capacity continued to grow, LYP's 1Q2024 wind generation was only up by 1.4% yoy to 17 GWh, dragged by decline in lower utilisation hours during the quarter (down 14 hours yoy). In 1Q2024, revenue from wind power was RMB7.84 bn, down 4.7% yoy. We believe the decline was largely due to lower wind tariffs as a result of increased power trading activities. We remain positive on LYP's long-term growth outlook, especially given the potential of wind repowering. LYP also enjoys an abundant project reserve (in 2023, LYP obtained new project reserve of 54 GW and new development quota of 23 GW).
風速和關稅的下降打壓了短期業績，而長期增長前景仍然穩健。儘管裝機容量持續增長，但受本季度利用時數下降（同比下降14小時）的拖累，LYP的 1Q2024 風力發電量僅同比增長1.4％，至17吉瓦時。在 1Q2024 中，風力發電收入爲人民幣78.4億元，同比下降4.7％。我們認爲，下降的主要原因是電力交易活動增加導致風電費率降低。我們對LYP的長期增長前景仍然樂觀，特別是考慮到風力發電的潛力。LYP還擁有豐富的項目儲備（2023年，LYP獲得了54吉瓦的新項目儲備和23吉瓦的新開發配額）。
Risks: Delay in project rollout, lower-than-expected tariffs for renewables.
風險：項目推遲推出，可再生能源費率低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。