CHINA MERCHANTS BANK(3968.HK):1Q24 RESULTS LOWER THAN EXPECTATION
CHINA MERCHANTS BANK(3968.HK):1Q24 RESULTS LOWER THAN EXPECTATION
China Merchants Bank (CMB) reported lower-than-expected 1Q24 results as the bank continued to provide more financial support to the real economy, which is in line with industry trend. Attributable net profit declined 2% YoY in 1Q24, mainly due to lower operating income and NIM. Meanwhile, CMB maintained outstanding asset quality as NPL ratio decreased and allowance to NPLs remained at higher level in 1Q24. CMB maintained its strong competitiveness in retail business market and its premium clients continued to grow in 1Q24. CMB's exposure to real estate development sector rebounded in 1Q24. As of end-March 2024, CMB's total balance of real estate related businesses, which were subject to credit risks, increased by 4.6% compared with end-December 2023. Maintain BUY rating.
招商銀行（CMB）公佈的24年第一季度業績低於預期，原因是該銀行繼續爲實體經濟提供更多金融支持，這符合行業趨勢。歸屬淨利潤在24年第一季度同比下降2％，這主要是由於營業收入和NIM的減少。同時，由於不良貸款率下降以及不良貸款準備金在24年第一季度保持在較高水平，招商銀行保持了出色的資產質量。招商銀行在零售業務市場保持了強大的競爭力，其優質客戶在24年第一季度持續增長。招行對房地產開發行業的敞口在24年第一季度有所回升。截至2024年3月底，招行受信用風險影響的房地產相關業務的總餘額與2023年12月底相比增長了4.6％。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Asset quality remained outstanding in 1Q24. CMB's NPL ratio dropped from 0.95% at end-December 2023 to 0.92% at end-March 2024, which might be still at the low-end level among peers. Meanwhile, its allowance to NPLs reached 436.8% at end-March 2024, against 437.7% at end-December 2023.
資產質量在 24 年第一季度保持出色。招行的不良貸款率從2023年12月底的0.95％下降到2024年3月底的0.92％，在同行中可能仍處於低端水平。同時，截至2024年3月底，其不良貸款補貼達到436.8％，而2023年12月底爲437.7％。
CMB's NIM dropped in 1Q24. Net interest income decreased 6.2% YoY in 1Q24 amid growing interest-earning assets and declining NIM. After dropping 25bps in 2022, its NIM was 2.02% in 1Q24, down another 13bps from 2023, mainly due to declining yield of IEA and rising funding cost. We expect its NIM to drop 19bps in 2024.
招商銀行的淨資產淨值在24年第一季度有所下降。在利息收益資產增加和NIM下降的情況下，淨利息收入在24年第一季度同比下降6.2％。在2022年下降25個點子之後，其淨資產收益率在24年第一季度爲2.02％，比2023年又下降了13個點子，這主要是由於國際能源署收益率下降和融資成本上升。我們預計其淨資產淨值將在2024年下降19個點子。
Fee and commission income declined in 1Q24. Its net fee and commission income declined 19.4% YoY in 1Q24 after dropping 10.8% YoY in 2023. Its net fee and commission income from wealth management, which accounted for 30.4% of total fee and commission income, decreased 32.6% YoY in 1Q24 mainly due to lower risk appetites and investment sentiments among its clients.
費用和佣金收入在24年第一季度有所下降。其淨費用和佣金收入在2023年同比下降10.8％之後，在24年第一季度同比下降了19.4％。其來自财富管理的淨費用和佣金收入佔總費用和佣金收入的30.4％，在24年第一季度同比下降32.6％，這主要是由於其客戶的風險偏好和投資情緒降低。
Meanwhile, income from agency distribution of funds dropped 32.7% YoY in 1Q24 due to decline in sales of equity funds.
同時，由於股票基金銷售下降，機構分配基金的收入在24年第一季度同比下降了32.7％。
Valuation
估價
Valuation is attractive. We believe the bank is undervalued as its H shares are now trading at about 0.79x 2024E P/B. In our view, CMB deserves to trade at a premium to its peers thanks to its outstanding asset quality, stricter NPL recognition, strong competitiveness in retail business and higher ROE.
估值很有吸引力。我們認爲，該銀行的估值被低估了，因爲其H股目前的市盈率約爲0.79倍。在我們看來，由於其卓越的資產質量、更嚴格的不良貸款認可、零售業務的強大競爭力和更高的投資回報率，招行理應以高於同行的價格進行交易。
Meanwhile, CMB could benefit more from expected consumption recovery. We expect its ROAE to reach 15.2% in 2024, the highest among its peers. We revised down our target price from HK$45.71 to HK$45.44 based on about 1.0x 2024E P/B.
同時，CMB可以從預期的消費復甦中受益更多。我們預計其投資回報率將在2024年達到15.2％，是同行中最高的。根據約1.0倍的2024年市盈率，我們將目標價從45.71港元下調至45.44港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。