2023 年公司本线客流快速恢复，跨线客流保持高增。根据公司公告，23 年京沪高铁本线列车运送旅客5325.2 万人次，同比增长209.1%；跨线列车运行里程完成9204.4 万列公里，同比增长66.2%；京福安徽公司管辖线路列车运行里程完成3559.5 万列公里，同比增长53.7%。流量快速修复，为公司业绩高增打下基础。Key points of investment:
Incident: The Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail released its 2023 annual report and 2014 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 40.683 billion yuan, an increase of 110.4% over the previous year; achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 11.546 billion yuan, and the annual report results were in line with expectations.
In the first quarter of '24, the company achieved revenue of 10.106 billion yuan, up 13.1% year on year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2,963 billion yuan, an increase of 33.1% year on year. Q1 results slightly exceeded expectations.
In 2023, the company's main line passenger flow quickly recovered, and cross-line passenger flow maintained a high increase. According to the company's announcement, the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail Main Line carried 53.252 million passengers in '23, an increase of 209.1% over the previous year; the operating mileage of cross-line trains reached 92.044 million kilometers, an increase of 66.2% over the previous year; and the operating mileage of trains on the Beijing-Fuzhou Anhui Company completed 35.595 million train kilometers, an increase of 53.7% over the previous year. Traffic was quickly repaired, laying the foundation for the company's high performance growth.
On the cost side, expenses related to strong transportation volumes increased significantly over the same period last year. According to the company's announcement, in '23, the company's energy expenditure increased 51.87% year on year, EMU usage fees increased 95.87% year on year, and high-speed rail transportation capacity guarantee fee increased 125.85% year on year.
Energy expenses, EMU usage fees, and high-speed rail transportation capacity guarantee fees are highly correlated with transportation volume. Along with the high increase in the company's main line and cross-line traffic, these costs also increased during the same period.
In Q1 '24, the company's performance was not weak during the off-season, with a year-on-year high increase. In the first quarter of '24, the company achieved revenue of 10.106 billion yuan, an increase of 13.1% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2,963 billion yuan, an increase of 33.1% year on year. The company's overall net profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, which is related to the company's optimization of train operation structure and cost reduction and efficiency.
Performance is in line with expectations and maintains a “buy” rating: in the short term, along with improved seasonal demand, the company's main line and cross-line traffic is expected to increase steadily. In the medium to long term, benefiting from factors such as the improvement of the road grid, optimization of high-speed rail transportation organization and technology, and operation map adjustments, the core advantages of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway line gradually became apparent. The profit forecast for 24 and 25 was maintained, and the profit forecast for 26 years was added. The company's 2024E-2026E net profit is estimated to be 138.73, 162.07, and 18.781 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 18/16/13 times, respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating of the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail.
Risk warning: China's macroeconomic downturn has led to a decline in residents' demand for travel; the country is implementing a price limit policy for high-speed rail fares.