2024Q1 扣非后利润增速回正，经营好转。公司2024Q1 实现收入7.73 亿元，同比下降4.60%；实现归母净利润0.38 亿元，同比下降5.84%，扣非后归母净利润0.34 亿元，同比增长14.28%。从反应真实经营状况的扣非口径看，公司2024Q1 利润增速已回正，经营好转。Event: The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report.
Overall 2023 results were under pressure, and there was a year-on-year recovery in the fourth quarter. The company achieved revenue of 3.106 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 2.95%; net profit to mother was 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.49%. Net profit after deduction in 2023 was 123 million yuan, an increase of 29.07% over the previous year. On a quarterly basis, 2023Q1-Q4 net profit to mother was 0.40/0.43/0.40/0.15 billion yuan, respectively, which was +0.23%/-17.40%/-20.51%/+165.22% compared with the same period in 2022. The fourth quarter was impressive. By industry, the company's bearing product revenue was 1,789 billion yuan, -5.12% year over year. Among them, the bearing ring business declined due to geopolitics and rising energy prices, etc., and 2023Q4 began to improve. Auto parts achieved revenue of 430 million yuan, +9.29% year over year. Thermal management system components achieved revenue of 827 million yuan, -1.26% year over year. The company's profitability was steady in 2023, with a gross margin of 17.54% for the whole year, -0.24pct year on year.
The company's expense ratio for the 2023 period was 11.21%, down 0.72% year on year. Overall, gross margin for 2023 was basically the same year on year, and the cost ratio declined slightly during the period.
Profit growth recovered after 2024Q1 deduction, and operations improved. The company achieved revenue of 773 million yuan in 2024Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 4.60%; realized net profit of 38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.84%, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 34 million yuan, an increase of 14.28% over the previous year. Judging from deductions reflecting actual business conditions, the company's 2024Q1 profit growth rate has been corrected, and operations have improved.
The development of new products is progressing smoothly, and samples of some screw components and components have been delivered. The company successfully developed NEV to support domestic and foreign engine customers, developed robot bearing products to support robot reducer enterprises, focused on NEV parts development, and increased investment in NEV thermal management R&D. The company pays great attention to the application prospects of screws in emerging industries. The main screw products include trapezoidal screws, ball screws, and planetary roller screws. The company has completed the design and continuous sample delivery and improvement of some screw components and components.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Due to downstream demand falling short of expectations in 2024Q1, we lowered the company's profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be $34.90/43.47/5.319 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of $208/2.59/303 million, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current market value is 31.4/25.3/21.6X, respectively. In the long run, the company is expected to enter the robot growth circuit. At the same time, the NEV and wind power roller business supports the company's long-term growth and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: NEV sales fall short of the expected risk; wind power installation falls short of the expected risk; the level of localization of the robot industry chain falls short of the expected risk.
