Event: The company released its 2023 annual report and 24Q1 quarterly report:
1) 2023: Revenue of 780 million yuan, +1.7% year on year; net profit to mother of 210 million yuan, -7.7% year on year; net profit without return to mother 190 million yuan, -9.9% year on year. The gross profit margin was 56.2%, -1.6 pct.
2) 23Q4: Revenue of 190 million yuan, +14.4% year over year, -10.2% month on month; net profit to mother of 50 million yuan, +15 year on year.
2%, -14.9% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 40 million yuan, +5.4% year-on-year, and -31.9% month-on-month. Gross profit margin 56.8%, -4.2pct year over year, +1.5pct month-on-month.
3) 24Q1: Revenue of 210 million yuan, +5.2% year over month, +11.7% month on month; net profit of 50 million yuan, -8.7% year on year, +6.3% month on month; net profit without return to mother of 50 million yuan, -9.0% year on year, +30.5% month on month. Gross profit margin 52.37%, -5.2pct year over year, -4.5pct month-on-month.
Demand from foreign customers slowed down & inventory removal, and the company's revenue declined in '23: in 2023, due to factors such as slowing demand from foreign customers & inventory consumption, the company's foreign revenue was -20.1% year-on-year, while domestic benefiting downstream customers accelerated expansion of overseas markets, widening application space in the sinking market, and rapid development of ultra-fast laser technology, and revenue was +24.7% year-on-year.
Looking at specific businesses, crystal components and laser devices all achieved year-on-year revenue growth. Precision optical components were affected by demand and price competition. Revenue was -10.6% year-on-year, and gross margin was -4.9pct year-on-year.
Focus on R&D investment and actively promote research and development of new products and processes: In 2023, the company invested 87 million yuan in R&D, +12.7% compared with the same period last year, to promote research and development of many new products and processes. The company has broken the foreign monopoly of key core technologies in the ultra-fast laser market, can provide customers with one-stop solutions, and at the same time vigorously develop the large-aperture ultra-precision optical component business to support the development and development of domestic ultra-precision optical measuring instruments and equipment. It has introduced a series of self-developed precision optical measuring equipment to the domestic optoelectronic industry, and has built products and technical advantages in the field of precision optical inspection.
The downstream market is gradually recovering, and growth is expected to resume in 24 years. The company's main products are upstream in the field of laser and optical communication.
Among them, the laser industry benefits from the gradual improvement in downstream demand and the opening up of demand for applications such as ultra-fast lasers, and is expected to continue to grow. According to Arnold Mayer data, the global laser processing system market will maintain a growth rate of 2-5% in 24; optical communication benefits from the explosion of AI demand, and demand for optical connectivity has increased dramatically. LightCounting expects sales of Ethernet optical modules to increase by nearly 30% in 2024.
Investment advice: Considering that the recovery of the laser market is still slow, we adjusted our profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit to be 2.30/2.27/327 million yuan in 2024-26 (previously 2024-25 corresponding to 2.85/356 million yuan), corresponding PE is 50/42/35 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of declining laser market sentiment; growth in the optical communications industry falling short of expectations; new product development falling short of expectations; risk of untimely updating of information used in research reports.