Q1 煤炭产、销减量，售价同、环比提高，收入增长。2024Q1 公司原煤产量501.43 万吨，同比-9.41%，环比2023Q4 变化+4.51%；商品煤产量469.44万吨，同比-1.53%，环比+4.73%；由于公司计划2024 年原煤产量1820 万吨，同比-6.04%，叠加一季度假期及安监影响，一季度产量符合预期。Q1 实现商品煤销量452.39 万吨，同比-5.44%，环比+1.58%。Q1 实现煤炭销售收入26.01亿元，同比+1.49%，环比+1.86%；销售成本15.68 亿元，同比+1.24%，环比-14.01%；销售毛利10.33 亿元，同比+1.87%，环比+41.45%；吨煤售价574.93元/吨，同比+7.33%，环比+0.27%。吨煤毛利228.41 元/吨，同比+7.73%，环比+39.25%。煤炭业务毛利率39.73%，同比提高0.15 个百分点，环比提高11.12 个百分点。Description of the event
The company released its report for the first quarter of 2024: during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 3,058 billion yuan, +5.59% year on year; realized net profit of 598 million yuan, +0.62% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 582 million yuan, -0.16% year over year; basic earnings per share were 0.23 yuan/share, weighted average return on net assets of 4.32%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year on year. Net cash flow from operating activities was $978 million, +40.35% YoY. As of March 31, 2024, the company's total assets were RMB 38.315 billion, +5.57% YoY, and net assets of RMB 14.161 billion, +4.75% YoY.
Incident reviews
Q1 Coal production and sales declined, sales prices increased month-on-month, and revenue increased. 2024Q1's raw coal production was 5,014,300 tons, -9.41% year-on-year, +4.51% month-on-month; commercial coal production was 4.694,400 tons, -1.53% year-on-year, and +4.73% month-on-month; due to the company's plan to produce 18.2 million tons of raw coal in 2024, -6.04% YoY, compounded by the impact of the one-quarter vacation period and safety supervision, the first quarter production was in line with expectations. Q1 achieved sales volume of 4,523,900 tons of commercial coal, -5.44% year-on-year and +1.58% month-on-month. Q1 achieved coal sales revenue of 2,601 billion yuan, +1.49% year over month; sales cost of 1,568 billion yuan, +1.24% year on month, -14.01% month on month; gross sales profit of 1,033 billion yuan, +1.87% year on month, +41.45% month on month; sales price of tons of coal was 574.93 yuan/ton, +7.33% year on month and +0.27% month on month. Gross profit per ton of coal was 228.41 yuan/ton, +7.73% year over year and +39.25% month on month. The gross profit margin of the coal business was 39.73%, up 0.15 percentage points year on year and 11.12 percentage points month on month.
Q1 Electricity volume and electricity prices have both increased, and there is still room for growth in the electricity sector. Benefiting from impacts such as the commissioning of the Panji Power Plant, the company expects power generation capacity of 11.5 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, +9.74%; of these, the 2024Q1 company will achieve 2,462 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation, 27.1%% YoY, -19.83% YoY; and the average feed-in price for Q1 is 0.4081 yuan/kWh, +1.49% YoY. The company is preparing to build the Shangrao Power Plant, Chuzhou Power Plant, and Lu'an Power Plant. Coal consumption accounts for about 40% of the company's production, and the synergetic advantages of coal-power integration are strong.
Investment advice
The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 0.85\ 0.88\ 0.90 yuan, corresponding to the company's closing price of 8.80 yuan on April 29, and the 2024-2026 PE is 10.4\ 9.9\ 9.8 times, respectively. The coal and electricity gap in Anhui is obvious. As an important coal and electricity supplier in the region, the coal and electricity gap has led to relatively strong regional coal and electricity prices; at the same time, under the synergetic advantage of coal and electricity integration, the company operates relatively steadily, and future production, sales, and performance are guaranteed; in addition, China Coal Group, which is one of the core coal central enterprise groups, where the company holds the majority shareholder position, we are optimistic about the valuation improvement space brought to the company by incorporating market value management of central enterprises into the assessment; therefore, we continue to give the company a “buy-A” investment rating.
Risk warning
The risk that the macroeconomic growth rate falls short of expectations; the risk that coal prices will fall below expectations; the risk of falling hours of thermal power use; the risk of falling electricity prices; the risk of safety and generation; the risk of asset injection falling short of expectations, etc.
