Junshi Biotech (688180): Tuoyi's sales revenue increased 57% year-on-year in Q1, and the expansion of indications achieved remarkable results

事件：

近日，公司发布2024 年第一季度报告。公司2024 年第一季度营业收入为3.81 亿元（同比+49.24%），研发费用为2.76 亿元（同比-47.64%），销售费用为1.92 亿元（同比+4.91%），管理费用为1.23 亿元（同比+8.98%），归母净利润为-2.83 亿元，扣非归母净利润为-3.07亿元。

观点：

2024Q1 拓益销售收入大幅增长，公司整体运营效率提升，亏损收窄。2024 年第一季度公司营收3.81 亿元，同比增长49.24%，营业收入增长主要来自商业化药品销售收入的增长，其中，核心产品特瑞普利单抗于国内市场实现销售收入3.07 亿元，同比增长56.82%。公司持续加强费用管控，优化资源配置，2024Q1 研发费用2.76 亿元，同比减少47.64%，销售费用1.92 亿元，同比增长4.91%，管理费用1.23亿元，同比增长8.99%。2024Q1 公司归母净利润-2.83 亿元，扣非归母净利润-3.07 亿元，亏损同比收窄2.60/2.52 亿元。截至2024 年3 月31日，公司在手现金为45.59 亿元。

2024 年拓益国内医保适应症有望扩至10 项，海外商业化顺利推进。截至目前，拓益8 项适应症在中国获批，6 项纳入国家医保目录。

2024Q2，拓益预计新增2 项获批适应症（1L TNBC, 1L ES-SCLC），因此今年医保适应症有望扩至10 项，其中4 项或为医保独家适应症（围手术NSCLC，1L RCC，1L TNBC，1L ES-SCLC）。海外市场方面，2024 年1 月特瑞普利单抗美国商业化正式启动，NPC 适应症销售峰值有望达到2 亿美金。2024 年特瑞普利单抗有望在在海外更多国家/地区获批上市：上市申请在欧盟、英国、澳大利亚、新加坡获得受理，在印度、南非、智利、约旦上市申请已提交。

2024 年公司核心管线催化剂丰富。1）昂戈瑞西单抗（PCSK9）用于高胆固醇血症获NMPA 批准上市；2）特瑞普利单抗（PD-1）两项3 期临床的数据读出，分别为围手术期ESCC 以及1L HCC；3）Tifcemalimab（BTLA）用于PD-（L）1 单抗难治性cHL 的3 期临床完成全部受试者入组；4）JS005（IL-17A）用于银屑病的3 期临床完成患者招募；5）JS105（PI3Kα）和JS001 sc（PD-1 皮下注射剂型）启动关键临床。

投资建议：

我们预测公司2024/25/26 年营业收入为21.10/34.42/47.05 亿元人民币，归母净利润为-10.63/0.12/10.18 亿元人民币。假定WACC 为9%，永续增长率3%，我们分别使用DCF 法和NPV 法进行估值并取二者的平均数，测算出目标市值为593.42 亿元人民币，对应股价为60.20元。维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：研发或销售不及预期风险，行业政策风险。

Incidents:

Recently, the company released its report for the first quarter of 2024. The company's revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was 381 million yuan (+49.24% YoY), R&D expenses were 276 million yuan (YoY -47.64%), sales expenses were 192 million yuan (+4.91% YoY), management expenses were 123 million yuan (YoY +8.98%), net profit attributable to mother was -283 million yuan, net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of -307 million yuan.

Opinions:

2024Q1 Tuoyi's sales revenue increased dramatically, the company's overall operating efficiency improved, and losses narrowed. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's revenue was 381 million yuan, up 49.24% year on year. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in sales revenue of commercial drugs. Among them, the core product treprilizumab achieved sales revenue of 307 million yuan in the domestic market, an increase of 56.82% year on year. The company continued to strengthen cost control and optimize resource allocation. 2024Q1 R&D expenses were 276 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.64%, sales expenses were 192 million yuan, an increase of 4.91% over the previous year, and management expenses were 123 million yuan, an increase of 8.99% over the previous year. 2024Q1's net profit attributable to mother was 283 million yuan, after deducting net profit of non-return to mother of 307 million yuan. Losses narrowed year-on-year by 260.52 million yuan. As of March 31, 2024, the company's cash on hand was 4,559 billion yuan.

Tuoyi's domestic medical insurance indications are expected to expand to 10 in 2024, and overseas commercialization is progressing smoothly. Up to now, 8 indications of Tuoyi have been approved in China, and 6 have been included in the national health insurance catalogue.

2024Q2, Tuoyi expects to add 2 new approved indications (1L TNBC, 1L ES-SCLC), so the medical insurance indications are expected to expand to 10 this year, 4 of which may be exclusive medical insurance indications (perioperative NSCLC, 1L RCC, 1L TNBC, 1L ES-SCLC). In overseas markets, commercialization of treprilizumab in the US was officially launched in January 2024, and the peak sales for NPC indications is expected to reach 200 million US dollars. In 2024, treprilizumab is expected to be approved for marketing in more overseas countries/regions: marketing applications have been accepted in the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Singapore, and marketing applications have been submitted in India, South Africa, Chile, and Jordan.

The company's core pipeline in 2024 is rich in catalysts. 1) angerizimab (PCSK9) for hypercholesterolemia was approved for marketing by the NMPA; 2) triplimab (PD-1) two phase 3 clinical data readings, respectively perioperative ESCC and 1L HCC; 3) Tifcemalimab (BTLA) for PD- (L) 1 refractory ChL completed all subjects; 4) JS005 (IL-17A) for completed phase 3 clinical recruitment of psoriasis patients; 5) JS105 (PIK3JSα) 001 sc (PD-1 subcutaneous dosage form) initiates critical clinical trials.

Investment advice:

We forecast the company's revenue for 2024/25/26 to be RMB 21.10/34.42/RMB 4.705 billion, and net profit to mother of -RMB 10.63/0.12/RMB 1,018 million. Assuming a WACC of 9% and a sustainable growth rate of 3%, we used the DCF method and the NPV method respectively to estimate the average of the two and calculate the target market value of RMB 59.342 billion, and the corresponding stock price is RMB 60.20. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of R&D or sales falling short of expectations, industry policy risk.

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君实生物(688180)：拓益销售收入Q1同比增长57% 适应症扩展成效显著

Junshi Biotech (688180): Tuoyi's sales revenue increased 57% year-on-year in Q1, and the expansion of indications achieved remarkable results

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