24Q1 销售额同比-59%、排名升至行业第11，投资聚焦核心城市。公司公告，华发股份2024Q1 实现销售金额203.7 亿元，同比-59%；销售面积68.5 万方，同比-58%；高基数下销售有所下滑，但排名继续提升，24Q1 公司销售额全国排名第11 位，较2023 年全年提升3 名，实现逆境弯道超车。销售端持续强势，源于公司优异的项目区域布局及品牌效应。24Q1 公司在上海、广州获取2 幅地块，拿地面积9.3 万方，同比-95%，拿地销售面积比14%。2023 年末公司待开发土储434 万平，在建1,189 万平，公司坚持4+1 全国性战略布局，主要布局在核心一二线城市。Key points of investment:
24Q1 results were -35% YoY, slightly lower than expected, with net investment income of 270 million yuan, +100% YoY. The company released its 2024 quarterly report. 2024Q1 achieved operating income of 7.0 billion yuan, -41.5% year on year; net profit of 430 million yuan, -45.7%; net profit to mother of 350 million yuan, -35.3% year on year; net profit after deduction of 340 million yuan to mother, -39.4% year on year; and basic earnings per share of 0.13 yuan/share, or -45.8% year on year. 2024Q1's comprehensive gross profit margin and net profit margin were 15.1% and 6.2%, respectively, -2.0pct and -0.5pct year-on-year, respectively; the period rate was 9.5%, +3.4pct year-on-year. In addition, the company's net investment income was 270 million yuan, +100.4% year on year; minority shareholders' profit and loss was 80 million yuan, -67.6% year on year; the company's settlement scale declined, while profit margins declined and period rates increased, causing the company's net profit to return to mother to fall somewhat in the short term. By the end of 2024Q1, the company's advance payments reached 97.82 billion yuan, +6.1% year-on-year, 1.4 times the 2023 revenue, and future settlement projects are guaranteed.
The company started 404,000 square meters of new construction in 24Q1 and completed an area of 1,291 million square meters, +163% and +94% year-on-year respectively.
24Q1 sales volume was -59% year-on-year, ranking rose to 11th place in the industry, and investment focused on core cities. The company announced that in 2024Q1, Huafa Co., Ltd. achieved sales volume of 20.37 billion yuan, -59%; sales area of 685,000 square meters, -58% year over year; sales declined under a high base, but the ranking continued to rise. 24Q1 ranked 11th in the country in terms of sales, up 3 places from the full year of 2023, and overtook the corner of adversity. The sales side continues to be strong, due to the company's excellent project regional layout and brand effect. The 24Q1 company obtained 2 plots of land in Shanghai and Guangzhou, with a land acquisition area of 93,000 square meters, -95% year-on-year, and 14% of the land acquisition sales area. At the end of 2023, the company is planning to develop 4.34 million square meters of land storage and 11.89 million square meters under construction. The company adheres to a 4+1 national strategic layout, mainly in core Tier 1 and 2 cities.
The three red lines have remained stable in the green zone, financing channels have been diversified, and equity financing has been successfully completed. The company announced that as of the end of 24Q1, the company's monetary capital was 41.91 billion yuan, -24.6%; after the forecast, the balance ratio was 64%, the net debt ratio was 70%, and the short-term cash debt ratio was 1.5 times, and it remained in the green band of the three red lines. In '23, the company completed the public offering of A shares to specific targets, issuing 635 million shares, with a total subscription amount of 5.1 billion yuan. Since 2024, the company has issued ultra-short loans, winning securities and private equity bonds, with a total issuance scale of 2.21 billion yuan and a weighted coupon interest rate of 3.4%. The company has the advantage of multi-channel financing, which has continued to help the company buck the trend and actively expand.
Investment analysis opinion: Performance is lower than expected, financing advantages are obvious, and the “buy” rating is maintained. The state-owned enterprise background of Huafa Co., Ltd. has recently achieved rapid sales growth, sufficient land reserves, and a focus on the core metropolitan area; it has achieved remarkable results in reducing debt and deleveraging, making it a green enterprise with both future growth and security. Considering that the pace of subsequent settlement will slow down, and that the downturn in the market will put pressure on the company's profit margins and depreciation, we maintain the 24-26 net profit forecast of 20.2, 22.22, and 2.33 billion yuan. The current price corresponds to 24/25PE at 8.9/8.1X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Real estate policies have been tightened beyond expectations, sales have declined beyond expectations, and project acquisitions are uncertain.
