WEICHAI POWER(2338.HK):1Q24 NET PROFIT +40% YOY IN LINE; SOLID GROWTH OUTLOOK
WEICHAI POWER(2338.HK):1Q24 NET PROFIT +40% YOY IN LINE; SOLID GROWTH OUTLOOK
While Weichai Power (Weichai)'s revenue growth of 6% YoY in 1Q24 is below our expectation, net profit of RMB2.6bn (+40% YoY) accounted for 21.4% of our full-year estimates (run rate in 1Q23: 20.5%), which is still in line with our expectation. The earnings growth was driven by margin expansion on both core business and KION Group (KGX GR, NR). We maintain Weichai as our sector top pick, given (1) the large gas/diesel price gap will continue to drive natural gas engine demand, where Weichai has >60% market share in; (2) high-speed large-bore engines will serve as a structural growth driver on the back of construction of more data centres. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP of HK$22/RMB20.4 for Weichai H/A.
儘管濰柴動力（濰柴）在24年第一季度收入同比增長6％，低於我們的預期，但26億元人民幣（同比增長40％）的淨利潤佔我們全年預期（23年第一季度的運行率：20.5％）的21.4％，仍符合我們的預期。收益增長是由核心業務和凱昂集團（KGX GR，NR）的利潤增長推動的。鑑於（1）巨大的天然氣/柴油價格差距將繼續推動天然氣發動機的需求，濰柴在天然氣發動機中的市場份額超過60％；（2）在建設更多數據中心的背景下，高速大口徑發動機將成爲結構性增長的推動力。維持 “買入”，濰柴H/A的目標價爲22港元/人民幣20.4元。
1Q24 results highlights. Weichai's revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB56.4bn. Gross margin expanded 3.4ppt YoY to 22.1% in 1Q24. With limited increase in SG&A and R&D expense ratio, the pre-tax profit surged 58% YoY to RMB4.2bn. Based on our calculation, the pretax profit of Weichai's core business / KION grew 45% / 93% YoY in 1Q24 (in RMB terms). Operating cash flow in 1Q24 substantially improved to RMB1.6bn, vs outflow of RMB471mn in 1Q23.
24 年第一季度業績亮點。濰柴的收入同比增長6％，達到564億元人民幣。毛利率在24年第一季度同比增長3.4個百分點至22.1％。由於銷售和收購及研發費用比率的增長有限，稅前利潤同比增長58％，至42億元人民幣。根據我們的計算，濰柴核心業務/凱昂的稅前利潤在24年第一季度同比增長45％/93％（以人民幣計算）。24年第一季度的運營現金流大幅改善至16億元人民幣，而23年第一季度的流出量爲4.71億元人民幣。
Margin recovery of KION Group. KION (46.5% owned by Weichai) reported adjusted EBIT of EUR227mn in 1Q24 (+46% YoY), driven by easing cost pressure. KION guided a full-year adjusted EBIT target of EUR790-940mn (up 0-19% YoY).
凱昂集團的利潤回升。凱昂（濰柴持有46.5％的股權）報告稱，受成本壓力緩解的推動，24年第一季度調整後的息稅前利潤爲2.27億歐元（同比增長46％）。凱昂將調整後的全年息稅前利潤目標定爲7.9億至9.4億歐元（同比增長0-19％）。
Weichai's engine sales outpaced industry in 1Q24. According to CICEIA, Weichai's multi-cylinder sales (HDT, construction machinery, other engines) grew 13% YoY to 206k units in 1Q24 (vs the industry average of a decline of ~1%), with market share of ~18% (+2.3ppt YoY).
24年第一季度，濰柴的發動機銷量超過了行業。根據CICEIA的數據，濰柴的多缸銷量（HDT、工程機械、其他發動機）在24年第一季度同比增長13％至20.6萬輛（而行業平均水平下降了約1％），市場份額約爲18％（同比增長2.3個百分點）。
Risk factors: 1) weakness in engine exports; 2) lower-than-expected replacement demand; 3) an increase in component costs.
風險因素：1）發動機出口疲軟；2）替代需求低於預期；3）零部件成本增加。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。