2023 年公司实现营收17.28 亿元，同比+23.40%，从产品结构维度拆分，红枣类产品实现营收13.11 亿元，占比75.86%，依然为公司核心基础盘，在红枣礼赠产品之外，积极打造红小派等零食化第二曲线，2023 年红小派实现营收2 亿元，同时构建红枣芝麻丸、软枣糖等零食产品矩阵。渠道维度看，公司在原有专卖店+传统电商的基础上，进一步丰富零食产品适配渠道，公司公告已拓展2 万家便利店、量贩零食店、超市等渠道网点，2023 年兴趣电商、量贩零食店、商超渠道分别实现营收2.48、0.55、0.45 亿元，预计网点的持续拓展将带动渠道结构更加均衡。24Q1 公司营收同比+19.05%，预计为春节礼赠及新产品新渠道带动，长期来看，红枣礼赠有望支撑公司基本盘稳定向上，扩产品扩渠道有望带来远期成长空间。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,728 billion yuan, +23.40% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 52 million yuan to mother. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 494 million yuan, +19.05% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 13 million yuan, or +2.63% year-on-year. Proposed cash dividend of $265 million, with a dividend rate of 9% (based on market capitalization on April 26, 2024).
Second, the product curve is clearly cultivated, and the snack adaptation channel continues to expand:
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,728 billion yuan, +23.40% over the same period. In terms of product structure, jujube products achieved revenue of 1,311 billion yuan, accounting for 75.86%. In addition to red jujube gift products, it actively created a second curve for snacks such as Red Xiaopai. In 2023, Red Xiaopai achieved revenue of 200 million yuan, and built a matrix of snack products such as red jujube sesame pills and jujube sugar. Looking at the channel dimension, on the basis of the original specialty store+traditional e-commerce, the company has further enriched snack product adaptation channels. The company announced that it has expanded 20,000 convenience stores, mass snack stores, supermarkets and other channel outlets. Interest e-commerce, mass snack stores, and supermarket channels achieved revenue of 2.48, 0.55, and 45 million yuan respectively in 2023. It is expected that the continuous expansion of outlets will drive a more balanced channel structure. 24Q1's revenue is +19.05% year-on-year, which is expected to be driven by Spring Festival gifts and new product channels. In the long run, jujube gifts are expected to support the steady improvement of the company's basic market, and expanding product channels is expected to bring room for long-term growth.
Discounting is dragging down performance, and the release of new products is expected to increase capacity utilization and release profits:
In 2023, the company lost 51.89 million yuan in net profit due to excessive depreciation and amortization, which affected profit performance. 24Q1 achieved net profit of 12.59 million yuan, mainly due to the company's clear gift attributes and obvious seasonal fluctuations. Q1 contributed a lot of profit during the Spring Festival peak season and increased capacity utilization. Looking ahead to the whole year, it is expected that production capacity utilization will be boosted through snack products such as Red Xiaopai, which will be diluted and discounted, thereby freeing up profit margins.
High dividends enhance investor returns, and improvements in the main business continue to confirm:
The current market value of the company is very busy with cash+financial assets+investment snacks, and is close to the group's equity. At the same time, it gives a 9% dividend rate to enhance investor returns. Improvements in the main business continue to confirm that the jujube category has formed a clear brand mentality. While expanding the company's capacity boundaries by expanding the company's capacity boundaries, it is also driving up production capacity utilization and freeing up profit margins. Furthermore, the company is very busy taking a stake in the Snack Group, and it is expected to seize the rapid expansion of mass snack stores and deepen product cooperation.
Investment advice:
We expect the company's revenue growth in 2024-2026 to be 10.08%, 15.07%, and 12.88%, respectively, and net profit of 0.31, 0.70, and 118 million yuan respectively. Considering the company's current low market capitalization level and the gradual implementation of improvements in the main business, combined with a high dividend rate, an investment rating of -A was given. Referring to Qiaqia Foods, Yanjin Shop, Ganyuan Foods, and Jinzai Foods, the 2024 Wind agreed to have an average PS of 2.68x, giving the company 2x PS. The expected revenue per share in 2024 is 4.20 yuan, corresponding to a target price of 8.39 yuan for 6 months.
Risk warning: Product promotion falls short of expectations, channel expansion falls short of expectations, increased market competition, food safety issues.
