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宝立食品(603170):复调延续高增 期待全年表现

Baoli Foods (603170): Continued high growth due to repeated periods of high growth, expected to perform throughout the year

天風證券 ·  Apr 30, 2024 13:36

Incident: In 2023, the company's operating income/net profit attributable to mother/net profit after deducting non-return to mother were 23.69/3, respectively.

$219 million (YoY +16.31%/+39.78%/+12.66%). 23Q4 The company's operating income/net profit attributable to mother/net profit after deduction of net profit not attributable to mother were $6.10/0.60/0.38 billion, respectively (+8.61%/-2.98%/-27.84% YoY). 24Q1 The company's operating income/net profit attributable to mother/net profit after deduction of net profit not attributable to mother were $6.24/0.61/0.52 billion, respectively (YoY +15.72%/-20.36%/-7.04%).

The overall product line continued to grow, and remodulation maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. In 2023, the company's revenue for compound seasonings/light cooking solutions/beverage and dessert ingredients was RMB 11.45/10.24/143 million (up 29.32%/1.39%/8.28%), of which 23Q4 was +19.46%/-4.26%/+35.11%, respectively. The remodulation achieved rapid growth. The B-side sold more than 2,500 products in 23 years, accounting for nearly 60% of products developed in the past three years; Huansheng, a subsidiary of Baisheng, increased its capital in Zhejiang Baoli (holding 40% shares after the capital increase) to further strengthen cooperation; C-end empty pasta was added one after another, adding “Spicy Thai Dongyin Gong” and “Spicy Crayfish” flavors. The sales volume of “618 Big Promotion” exceeded 100 million yuan, and online sales of Double Eleven exceeded 140 million yuan. 24Q1's revenue from compound seasonings/light cooking solutions/beverage and dessert ingredients was RMB 3.04/2.67/0.35 billion yuan (+27.70%/+5.76%/+0.56% YoY), and the compound growth rate was maintained at a high rate.

Non-main sales areas have achieved high growth, and the number of dealers is growing rapidly. Revenue in East China/South China/North China/Central China/Northeast China/Southwest/Northwest/Northwest/Overseas was 18.62/0.98/1.63/0.65/0.66/0.20/0.09/0.27 billion yuan (YoY +9.73%/+26.21%/+24.89%/+38.25%/+33.97%/+201.35%/+86.95%/+108.12%), with the exception of the East China base camp, all achieved 20% + growth; of these, 23Q4 were +5.67%/+8.55% /- 3.74%/+16.53%/+11.87%/+259.97%/+143.50%/+160.14%; 24Q1 was +9.50%/+20.70%/+76.19%/+52.51%/+19.65%/+135.48%/+100.99%/+117.32%), and regions outside East China continued to increase. At the end of 24Q1, there was a year-on-year change of +107 to 387 dealers. The number of dealers grew rapidly, and the average dealer revenue changed -18.96% year over year to 25.

590,000 yuan/house.

Profitability has declined, and sales expense investment ratios have decreased. In 2023, the company's gross margin/net margin changed year-on-year by -1.43/+1.82 percentage points to 33.14%/13.14%, of which 23Q4 changed -4.40/ -0.55 percentage points to 30.95%/10.88%; sales expense ratio/management expense ratio/financial expense ratio changed year-on-year by -0.61/-0.06/-0.12 percentage points to 14.64%/2.81%/-0.13%, respectively, 23Q4 changed -0.09/-1.20/- 0.09 percentage points to 15.69%/2.45%/-0.01%. The company's gross margin/net margin changed year-on-year in 24Q1 by -3.05/-3.79 percentage points to 32 percentage points, respectively.

04%/10.75%; the sales expense rate/management expense rate/financial expense ratio changed by -1.24/-0.14/0.08 percentage points year-on-year to 14.85%/2.37%/-0.18%, respectively, and the sales expense ratio decreased.

Investment advice: In 2024, the company will continue to expand its circle of capabilities, cover a wider range of business segments, and deeply penetrate the relevant fields of the main business, stabilize its market position with steady market performance and growing revenue growth, and further gather market share. According to the quarterly report and adjusted profit forecast, revenue for 24-26 is estimated to be 27.43/31.27/35.24 billion yuan, up 16%/14%/13% from 24-25 years ago (30.56/3.69 billion yuan); net profit to mother is 2.87/339/39/396 million yuan (24-25 years ago value was 3).

67,458 million yuan), -5%/+18% +17% year-on-year, corresponding PE was 21X/17X/15X, respectively. Maintain a “buy” investment rating.

Risk warning: Industry competition intensifies; consumer demand falls short of expectations; risk of raw material price fluctuations; market expansion falls short of expectations; risk of new product promotion falling short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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