occurrences
On April 29, 2024, the company released its annual report for the year 23 and the quarterly report for the year 24. The company achieved revenue of 210 million yuan (+44.7% YoY), and achieved a return of 190 million (+1.2% YoY) after excluding the impact of share payment fees. Of these, in the fourth quarter of '23, it achieved revenue of 390 million (-15.3% YoY), and achieved revenue of 0.2 billion yuan (-62.4% YoY); achieved revenue of 580 million yuan (YoY +3.2%) in the first quarter of '24 0.56 billion (+10.4% YoY).
reviews
By product, the company's aviation forgings achieved revenue of 1.5 billion yuan (+38.3%), energy forgings achieved revenue of 240 million yuan (YoY +37.6%), gas turbine forgings achieved revenue of 170 million yuan (YoY +243.2%), and aerospace forgings achieved revenue of 80 billion yuan (YoY -16.6%); by region, domestic business achieved revenue of 1.40 billion yuan (YoY +26.8%), and overseas business achieved revenue of 610 million (YoY +92.3%). The company's domestic business achieved steady growth, driven by strong demand for downstream aviation, gas turbines, etc. The foreign business benefited from a strong recovery in the international aviation development market. Revenue increased and reached a record high. Domestic and international wings joined forces to help the company's performance continue to increase.
The company's gross profit margin for the year 23 was 27.2% (-4.9pct year on year), the net profit margin to mother was 8.8% (-3.8pct year on year); the gross profit margin for the first quarter of '24 was 26.2% (-3.3pct year on year), and the net profit margin to mother was 9.7% (+0.6pct year on year). As the scale effect of the company's production capacity climbing continues to show, the pressure on upstream raw material costs will gradually ease, and the company's profitability is expected to pick up.
By the end of the 23-year period, the company still had orders of 2,603 billion yuan (+28.48% year over year). According to the signed long-term agreement, combined with the production schedule confirmed with the customer, the current order amount is estimated to be about 2,265 billion yuan during the Changxie period according to the corresponding price. The company's total on-hand orders are about 4.868 billion yuan. The company's on-hand orders have increased, laying a solid foundation for achieving performance growth.
The company actively promotes vertical business expansion, covering the direction of intelligent equipment, metal inspection and testing, metal surface treatment, precision processing of aero engine parts, etc., and has the potential for continuous growth in the medium to long term.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be $3.0/41/520 million, up 63%/36%/27% year-on-year, corresponding PE is 17/12/10 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The speed of installation and delivery of key models fell short of expectations, and the release of production capacity fell short of expectations.