2024Q1 公司实现营收3.78 亿元，同比+29.27%；归母净利润0.47 亿元，同比+4.12%；扣非归母净利润0.46 亿元，同比+1.72%。Incidents:
On April 25, 2024, Shenghang Co., Ltd. released its 2023 Annual Report and 2024 Quarterly Report:
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,261 billion yuan, +45.3% year on year; net profit of 180 million yuan, +7.68% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 175 million yuan, +4.50% year on year; 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 384 million yuan, +51.53% year on year; net profit to mother 66 million yuan, +90.49% year over year; net profit without return to mother 60 million yuan, +74.53% year over year.
2024Q1 achieved revenue of 378 million yuan, +29.27% year over year; net profit to mother was 47 million yuan, +4.12% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 46 million yuan, +1.72% year over year.
Investment highlights:
Domestic trade demand has recovered, and the boom in foreign trade has brought revenue elasticity
In 2023, due to macroeconomic impact, some downstream refinery equipment was overhauled, and the operating rate of chemical products declined, which in turn led to a short-term decline in industry demand. 2023Q4. As refinery equipment maintenance was completed and construction started, the chemical operating rate gradually picked up. Under the resonance of demand restoration and capacity expansion, 2023Q4's revenue was +51.53% year-on-year. Since 2024, in terms of domestic trade, taking PX, the main transportation category, as an example, the average operating rate of 2024Q1 was 86.1%, up 10.8 pcts year on year, and domestic trade demand continued to recover; according to Clarkson, taking the Far East-Middle East 15,000 MT chemical tanker as an example, the 2024Q1 freight rate was +5.1% year over year and +41.7% month on month. The rise in freight rates contributed to the company's revenue elasticity. The growth trend continued. 2024Q1
The gross margin of 2024Q1 increased year on year, and the net sales margin increased, benefiting from the restoration of domestic trade and the boom in foreign trade. The gross sales margin of the 2024Q1 company was 33.75%, +1.34 pct year over year, and +1.83 pct month on month. In terms of rates, the rate for the period was +1.02pct to 15.52% year over year. Among them, the financial rate was +1.44pct to 6.18% year over year due to financing expansion, and the remaining sales/management/research rates were +0.19pct/-1.10pct/+0.50pct to 0.53%, 5.96%, and 2.84% year over year, respectively. 2024Q1 net sales margin increased 0.28pct year-on-year to 16.39%.
Domestic and foreign trade capacity continues to expand, and we are optimistic that performance will be released quarterly
The company's domestic and foreign trade capacity expanded on two wheels. By the end of 2023, the company's domestic trade chemical shipping capacity was 181,100 DWT, +20.33%; the total capacity of refined oil tankers was 581,000 DWT, +56.60%; the total capacity of foreign trade chemical tankers was 59,600 DWT, +344.78% YoY. In addition, there were 4 ships under construction, with a total capacity of 21,400 DWT. In January 2024, the company announced its intention to acquire 71.5% of Haichanghua's shares. If the merger and acquisition is implemented, it is expected to further increase its market share and continue to grow.
Profit forecasts and investment ratings are based on prudential principles, and the impact of the company's proposed acquisition of Haichanghua will not be taken into account for the time being. We estimate that the 2024-2026 operating income of Shenghang Co., Ltd. will be 1,562 billion yuan, 1,808 million yuan and 2,065 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother will be 230 million yuan, 284 million yuan and 347 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 13 times, 10 times and 8 times, respectively. The trend of strong industry supervision and limited supply growth has not changed. As a leading domestic chemical shipping enterprise, the company's market share continues to increase under epitaxial mergers and acquisitions; actively planning foreign trade is expected to enjoy upward cyclical dividends, opening up room for long-term growth, and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risks suggest that demand growth falls short of expectations; heavy asset mergers and acquisitions fall short of expectations; capacity expansion falls short of expectations; policy changes; chemical transportation safety risks; and uncertainty about additional capacity.