Industrial carrier sales revenue increased dramatically, and changes in fair value dragged down performance and maintained a “buy” rating
Zhangjiang Hi-Tech released its 2024 quarterly report. The company's high revenue growth and profits are under pressure, the leasing business remains steady, and industrial investment continues to increase. We maintain our profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit to be 11.25, 13.34, and 1,461 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding EPS of 0.73, 0.86, and 0.94 yuan. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 26.4, 22.3, and 20.4 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Revenue increased year-on-year, and changes in fair value eroded net profit
In 2024Q1, the company achieved revenue of 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 295.5%; achieved net profit of 119 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%; achieved net operating cash flow of -1,817 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 118.8%; basic earnings per share were 0.08 yuan, and the net sales margin fell from 80.6% to 12.2%. The company's revenue growth in the first quarter was mainly due to a sharp increase in industrial space carrier sales; the decline in net profit due to (1) a drop in gross sales margin to 57.9% (2023Q1 was 60.8%); (2) the fair value of financial assets held by the company fell sharply, and net income from changes in fair value fell to -037 million yuan (2023Q1 was 124 million yuan); (3) confirmed investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures fell to -114 million yuan (2023Q1 was 73 million yuan); the company's net operating cash flow was mainly due to payments Property project payments increased significantly year over year.
Sales and leasing revenue continued to grow. The rapid project construction promotion company achieved real estate rental revenue of 248 million yuan in 2024Q1, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year. The total rental real estate area as of the end of March was 1.462 million square meters (1.353 million square meters in early 2024). The company achieved a sales area of 24,300 square meters and a sales amount of 726 million yuan in 2024Q1. 2023Q1 did not achieve sales, leading to a high increase in sales revenue in the first quarter. The company is in a large-scale, fast-paced carrier development cycle in 2023. There are 19 main development and construction projects, with a total construction area of 3.24 million square meters, and a total planned investment of 50.4 billion yuan. Of these, the façade façade of Zhangjiang Science Gate has all been completed, and the overall project progress is over 70%. It is expected to be completed and delivered in 2025.
Industrial cultivation has been effective, and financing costs have remained low
The company insists on pooling market resources to promote industrial development through “direct investment+fund+incubation”. 2024Q1 was affected by joint ventures and joint ventures, and the investment income was -100 million yuan (2023Q1 was 133 million yuan). The company directly invested 52 projects in 2023, with a total investment of 3,860 billion yuan. It has completed fund pledges of 1.13 billion yuan to raise and establish the Suifeng Phase II Fund. The company's open market financing was smooth. In April 2024, a 3-year 1 billion yuan medium-term note was issued, with a coupon interest rate of 2.57%, and financing costs remained low.
Risk warning: Real estate industry sales downside risks, business risks due to policy adjustments, and industrial investment risks.