分产品看：2023 年公司优质浮法玻璃/节能建筑玻璃/超白光伏玻璃和其他功能玻璃分别实现收入90.7/27.8/34.1 和2.4 亿元，分别同比+4.0%/+8.2%/+114.13%和-8.1%。销量上看：2023 年公司分别优质浮法玻璃原片产量11402 万重箱，同比+5.6%；销售光伏玻璃加工片19408 万平方米，同比+201.7%。截至2023 年末，公司浮法玻璃产能为16600 吨/日，光伏玻璃产能为8,200 吨/日，2023 年新增光伏玻璃产能 6,000 吨/日。毛利率方面：受益于房地产行业保交楼政策的竣工需求、家装玻璃需求的利好因素，建筑玻璃需求端表现较为强劲，行业盈利能力提升。公司优质浮法玻璃/节能建筑玻璃/超白光伏玻璃和其他功能玻璃毛利率分别为27.2%/20.7%/21.6%和8.8%，分别同比+4.2pct/-0.5pct/+13.5pct 和-17.0pct。Float glass is profitable and resilient, and photovoltaic glass is gradually being released to maintain a “buy” rating
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: in 2023, it achieved revenue of 15.68 billion yuan, +17.8% year over year, realized net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, +33.0% year on year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 1.66 billion yuan, +39.4% year on year. Among them, 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 4.50 billion yuan, +4.6% month-on-month, net profit to mother of 510 million yuan, -14.9% month-on-month, and net profit without return to mother of 530 million yuan, or -8.6% month-on-month. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 3.86 billion yuan, +23.2% year over year, net profit to mother of 440 million yuan, +292.3% year over year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 420 million yuan, +543.1% year over year. Considering the gradual expansion of the company's photovoltaic glass business in 2024, we raised the company's profit forecast for 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 20.8/24.3/2.58 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (pre-2024-2025 value was 20.1/1.14 billion yuan); EPS was 0.77/0.91/0.96 yuan respectively; corresponding to the current stock price PE is 9.7/8.3/7.8 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
The amount of float glass is rising rapidly, and the amount of photovoltaic glass is being released significantly
By product: In 2023, the company's high-quality float glass/energy-saving building glass/ultra-white photovoltaic glass and other functional glass achieved revenue of 90.7/27.8/34.1 million yuan and 240 million yuan respectively, +4.0%/+8.2%/+114.13% and -8.1%, respectively. In terms of sales volume: in 2023, the company produced 11.4.2 million heavy boxes of high-quality float glass, respectively; sold 19.08 million square meters of processed photovoltaic glass, +201.7% compared with the same period last year. By the end of 2023, the company's float glass production capacity was 16,600 tons/day, photovoltaic glass production capacity was 8,200 tons/day, and additional photovoltaic glass production capacity was 6,000 tons/day in 2023. In terms of gross margin: Benefiting from favorable factors in the real estate industry's completed construction policy and demand for home decoration glass, the demand side of construction glass performed strongly, and the profitability of the industry increased. The gross margins of the company's high-quality float glass/energy-saving architectural glass/ultra-white photovoltaic glass and other functional glass were 27.2%/20.7%/21.6% and 8.8%, respectively, +4.2pct/-0.5pct/+13.5pct and -17.0pct, respectively.
In 2024, Q1's float glass business was basically stable. Gross margin increased year-on-year, demand for installed PV terminals continued to increase, production and sales increased sharply year-on-year, and profitability increased dramatically, becoming a new profit growth point.
Fee rates increased slightly in 2023
The company's expense ratio for the 2023 period was 11.2%, +1.1 pct. Among them, sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates were 1.1%/5.4%/3.7%/1.0%, respectively, +0.1 pct/+0.1 pct/+0.9 pct, respectively, and financial expenses were +142 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in loan size and the year-on-year decrease in exchange earnings. The company's expenses rate for the 2024Q1 period was 11.9%, +1.6pct year-on-year, with sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates of 1.0%/6.3%/3.2%/1.5%, and +0.01pct/+1.1pct/-0.2pct/+0.7pct, respectively.
Float glass may be under pressure, and photovoltaic production capacity will gradually be released
The supply and demand situation in the industry is severe in 2024, and the float glass business may be under pressure. In 2024, the company's photovoltaic glass production line is expected to be put into operation 3 1,200 tons/day (a total of 3,600 tons/day). The company's photovoltaic glass production and sales will increase, and the scale effect will gradually become apparent.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the recovery in real estate demand falls short of the expected risk, the demand for PV installation falls short of the expected risk, and the risk of developing new business falls short of expectations.
